A majority of Americans believe that a housing market crash could happen in 2024, and more than one-third of them want it to happen.
According to a survey of 2,000 American adults by LendingTree (NASDAQ:TREE), 44% of respondents think the housing market is at risk of crashing in the next year, with 25% stating that will not occur and 31% stating they were unsure.
The survey also found that 36% of homeowners want the market to crash. Within this fatalistic group, 15% said a crash will help to lower their property taxes and 15% believed it would lead to future economic stability.
“Right now, home prices are high, as are mortgage rates,” said LendingTree Senior Economist Jacob Channel. “With that in mind, I can understand why some might wish for a housing crash that brings lower prices. Unfortunately, if the national housing market were to crash, odds are that it would bring down the rest of the economy with it.”
LendingTree also reported that half (50%) of homeowner respondents said their current rate is keeping them in their houses while three-fourths (75%) said they were unsure if they’ll ever see rates as low as in 2020 and 2021 – with 11% of homeowners believing they will not be able to buy a home again.
And 62% of respondents said home prices will increase in the next year, with two-thirds (66%) of them believing they will rise by 5% or more. Nearly one-third (32%) of non-homeowners believed an economic downturn is the only way they could afford a home.
“It’s not impossible for home prices to fall and make a given housing market more affordable,” said Channel. “It’s also not necessarily impossible for the housing market to outright crash next year while the rest of the economy remains relatively okay – though it’s very unlikely. But if you’re hoping that the housing market will crash and make it easier for you to buy a house, you’ll probably be disappointed. Not only does data indicate the odds of a housing crash in the next few years are slim, the past shows that when the market crashes, it tends to hurt more people than it helps.”
All the smart ones are begging for it. Return to pre-Covid lockdowns. Straighten out builder inflation. Keep raising rates.