The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has credited the central bank’s rate policy for bringing down inflation, but he warned it was much too early to talk about cutting rates.
In a speech delivered at New York University, Atlanta Fed President and CEO Raphael Bostic credited a “healing supply side of the economy” with coupled with a “restrictive monetary policy has helped to decelerate the inflation rate more rapidly than even optimists expected. Yet inflation on a year-over-year basis remains above 2 %. In a stark departure from historical norms, disinflation has proceeded absent significant weakening of the labor market or economic activity. That has been a most pleasant surprise.”
But Bostic warned that the Fed will not be offering any pleasant surprises in the form of rate cuts in the next few months.
“My expectation is that the rate of inflation will continue to decline, but more slowly than the pace implied by where the markets signal monetary policy should be,” he continued. “As some colleagues and I have noted, we will likely soon contemplate the appropriate time for monetary policy to become less restrictive. Right now, a strong labor market and macroeconomy offer the chance to execute these policy decisions without oppressive urgency.”
Bostic stated the nation’s economy was in “a good spot, even an enviable spot compared to other major economies.” But he stressed that is not a cue for a shift in policy.
“From my vantage point, the evidence from data, our surveys, and our outreach says that victory is not clearly in hand and leaves me not yet comfortable that inflation is inexorably declining to our 2% objective,” he said. “That may be true for some time, even if the January CPI report turns out to be an aberration. So that gratitude will be accompanied by vigilance, and I will be ready to do what it takes to achieve our monetary policy mandates.”
Do not cut them. It is working. Inventory is up and prices are going back to precovid levels.
It will be interesting how this will impact the real estate market this year. Many were expecting rate cuts this spring that now are not likely to happen. This means interest rates will likely remain higher and housing affordability will be a major issue.