Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 939,000, according to data from the US Census Bureau. Last month’s level is 2.8% above the revised June figure of 913,000.
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.42 million, which is 5.2% above the revised June estimate of 1.35 million and 12.9% above the July 2024 rate of 1.26 million.
Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 870,000, a 0.5% uptick from the revised June figure of 866,000. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.35 million, down 2.8% from the revised June rate of 1.39 million and 5.7% below the July 2024 rate of 1.43 million.
Single-family housing completions in July were at a rate of 1.02 million, an 11.6% surge above the revised June rate of 916,000. Privately-owned housing completions in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.41 million, which is 6% above the revised June estimate of 1.33 million but was also 13.5 % below the July 2024 rate of 1.63 million.
However, the increase in housing starts did not spark much enthusiasm among industry experts.
“Single-family production continues to operate at reduced levels due to ongoing housing affordability challenges, including persistently high mortgage rates, the skilled labor shortage and excessive regulatory costs,” said Buddy Hughes, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders and a home builder and developer from Lexington, North Carolina. “These headwinds were reflected in our latest builder survey, which indicates that affordability is the top challenge to the housing market.”
First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi observed, “Housing starts jumped in July, primarily on the back of the multifamily sector. Multifamily starts surge for a second straight month, while single-family starts managed a slight rebound from the previous month. Despite a modest uptick after four-month streak of declines, single-family permits – a leading indicator of future construction—remain near their lowest level since March 2023, signaling continued weakness in the sector.”
Steven Brown, economist at Capital Economics, also emphasized the negative, posting on X, “Although July was a strong month for housing starts, the worrying development is that building permit issuance dropped to the lowest since the pandemic.”
Rick Palacios Jr., director of research at John Burns Research & Consulting, also took to X with a questioning of the data’s veracity.
“Today’s Census print on single-family housing starts was a head-scratcher,” he wrote. “Homebuilders we survey (consistent sample size with minimal noise) saw starts per community drop -13% YOY nationally in July, with all regions falling except for the Midwest. In order for the Census data to be correct on July single-family starts +7% YOY (NSA), builders would need to grow community counts ~+20% YOY, which is very hard to believe and doesn’t match what we’re hearing, even from the big builders.”
