Two new data reports pointed to a modest acceleration in home prices.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.5% annual increase in August while the 10-City and 20-City Composites reported year-over-year increases of 2.1% and 1.6%, respectively.
The pre-seasonally adjusted US National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices continued to report negative month-over-month change in August, posting -0.3% for US national index and -0.6% for both 10-City and 20-City Composite indices. After the seasonal adjustment, all three indices posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%. Nineteen of 20 metros declined month-to-month in August, with only Chicago posting a gain.
Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, observed 1.5% annual increase “marks the weakest annual gain in over two years and falls well below the 3% inflation rate. For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher.”
Godec added, “New York again led all metros with a 6.1% annual gain, followed by Chicago at 5.9% and Cleveland at 4.7%. These Midwest and Northeast markets, which saw modest gains during the pandemic, continue to outperform. At the other end, Tampa fell 3.3% year over year, Phoenix dropped 1.7%, and Miami declined 1.7%. Several Western markets also posted losses: San Francisco fell 1.5%, Denver dropped 0.7%, and San Diego declined 0.7%. Seattle turned slightly negative at -0.1%.”
Separately, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) issued its latest House Price Index report that found prices rose by a mild 0.4% from July to August and by a more substantial 2.3% from August 2024 to last month. The previously reported 0.1% price decline in July was revised to 0.0%.
For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly home price changes ranged from -0.8% in the Pacific division to +1.2% in the Middle Atlantic division. The 12-month changes ranged from -0.6% in the Pacific division to +6.3% in the Middle Atlantic division.
