National apartment rent growth is projected to decline by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of this year, a downward revision of 160 basis points from a previous projection, according to Houseview forecast from CoStar Group (NASDAQ: CSGP). Vacancy is expected to hold at 8.2% through the end of December before easing to 7.9% by the end of 2026.
The updated outlook is partly attributed to slower growth in employment, population, and household formation, which could delay absorption in oversupplied markets. On the other hand, CoStar noted that limited for-sale housing inventory helps fuel multifamily demand by keeping many renters priced out of homeownership.
“The revised forecast reflects a more measured view of near-term performance,” said Grant Montgomery, national director of multifamily analytics at CoStar Group. “Still, a turning point is approaching. In the final quarter of 2025, renters are expected to occupy more units than are added to supply — a first since the third quarter of 2021. That shift should allow vacancy to begin receding in 2026, supported by a shrinking construction pipeline and steady renter demand.”
