The number of past-due mortgages rose by 275,000 from October to 2.3 million in November, raising the national delinquency rate to 3.85% — the highest level in over four years.
According to a new data report from ICE Mortgage Technology, a division of Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (NYSE: ICE), 609,000 borrowers who were current on payments in October became delinquent in November, marking the largest single-month inflow since May 2020. Rolls from 30- to 60-day and 60- to 90-day delinquency bands also recorded significant increases.
In its data analysis, ICE noted these numbers aligned with historical calendar effects: November’s delinquency rate increase was in line with prior years when the month ended on a Sunday, which last occurred in 2014 (+61 bps), 2008 (+112 bps), and 2003 (+57 bps) — all of which exceeded this year’s 50 basis point increase.
November’s prepayment activity fell 18% month-over-month after reaching a 3.5-year high in October while foreclosure activity dipped due to seasonal and calendar effects. However, foreclosure starts (+25%), sales (+25%) and active foreclosure volumes (+21%) were above last year’s levels.
“While the topline delinquency numbers show a sharp increase, we’ve seen comparable spikes in prior years when November ended on a Sunday and scheduled payments didn’t post until early December,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE. “Overall performance was in line with what historical patterns would suggest. That said, December data will be important to watch to confirm how quickly borrowers recover from this temporary uptick.”
