A Phil Hall Op-Ed: In putting together a list of predictions for what the real estate industry might experience during 2026, I am reminded of the wonderfully warped psychic Criswell, who gained fame and fortune by making bold predictions including claims that an Interplanetary Convention would be held in Las Vegas in 1970 with representatives from Mars, Venus, Neptune and the Moon. He also predicted New York City would cease to exist after 1980 due to shifting ocean currents and earth tremors sinking large sections of the East Coast, and he declared an atomic missile from a hostile foreign power would fall on Vermont in 1981. He also forecasted the Earth would be destroyed on Aug. 18, 1999.
I doubt that I could ever match Criswell for audacious entertainment value in predictions, but I hope that I don’t mirror his track record for getting things right. Looking ahead into the real estate world for 2026, I am predicting that we can expect to see the following.
Economy. I believe the US economy will be solid, if not especially robust, in the coming year. Inflation should slowly tick down but unemployment might stay at current levels. I am afraid that we will see a replay of 2025 where too many people are openly rooting for President Trump’s economic agenda to fail – remember all that talk about “recession” back in the spring? – but it might be best for the administration if the economic pep talks and updates were given by anyone but the president, who has the unfortunate habit of going off script and diluting the effectiveness of his messaging.
Federal Reserve. Personally, I don’t think it matters who succeeds Jerome Powell as the chairman of the central bank because that person will not be independent of the White House. But I think the financial markets will welcome new leadership after eight years of Powell’s erratic and, ultimately, unsuccessful tenure. Also, I doubt the Supreme Court will enable Trump to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed’s Board of Governors based on spurious mortgage fraud accusations that were obviously generated just to bum-rush her out the door – that is a red line that the court will not be comfortable in crossing.
Housing Policy. I think the promised housing affordability plan from the White House will be little more than a rehash of the ideas that were floated during 2025. I don’t see homebuilders kowtowing to administration demands to build more homes, nor do I see the administration making any effort to crack down on corporate and institutional investor acquisitions across the single-family housing markets. As for the initial public offering touted for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, I will go out on a limb and question if it will happen. The idea of an IPO while the government-sponsored enterprises are still in federal conservatorship and their regulator serves as chairman of the enterprises makes this a terrible investment. If there is no IPO by the end of the first quarter, it probably won’t occur at all.
Politics. All evidence is pointing to the Republicans losing the House of Representatives in November’s election, and that would be disastrous because a Democrat-controlled House will become obsessed with impeachment hearings against Trump and members of his administration. If the Republicans also lose the Senate (which I doubt will happen), then the following two years will be pure chaos in Washington with unprecedented efforts to expel an incumbent president. At a state level, I believe the grassroots anger over property taxes will be the dominant issue in red states and it could even work to overthrow a blue state governor dealing with exorbitant tax levels. I would not be surprised if the now-mild backlash against the creation of data centers starts to bubble up, especially among socialist-leaning progressives, but I don’t see it boiling over into a major issue in 2026.
Technology. I think the real estate industry, as with all other industries, will continue to tiptoe into the realm of artificial intelligence, with varying degrees of embrace. But I am afraid the big tech issue of 2026 will involve cybersecurity – a digital assault on a major multiple listing service, real estate company, or government agency involved in housing is not out of the question. Cybersecurity should also be a concern as cryptocurrency becomes more prominent in real estate transactions.
Housing Market. I might be too optimistic, but I feel that mortgage rates will be somewhere between 5.75% and 6.00% by this time next year. A decline in mortgage rates and an increased inventory should spark more home sales, especially if consumer confidence improves as the year progresses. However, a continuation of home price acceleration – even at a mild pace – will put a crimp on sales. I believe home prices will flatten in 2026, but I can’t believe there will be a significant decline in prices. As a result, affordability will still be a headache by this time next year.
Real Estate Profession. I will go out on another limb and predict more people will seek work in the real estate profession, both from an agent/broker perspective and on the back-office side as companies seek experts to help them incorporate artificial intelligence into operations. Consolidation will certainly continue as the major companies shop around for firms to acquire, and it would not unexpected if a large brokerage or real estate holding company tries to acquire a prominent homebuilder. Despite the grumbling among many of its members, the National Association of Realtors will continue to be the dominant force in the industry while the upstart American Real Estate Association doesn’t appear to be able to move beyond its gadfly status. And this might sound silly, but I think the growing success of Netflix’s real estate programs including Ryan Serhant’s “Owning Manhattan” will help inspire some young people to consider real estate careers.
Well, that’s 2026 as I see it. What are your predictions? Share them in the comments section below, and let’s kick off the new year in a provocative conversation.
Happy New Year!
Phil Hall is editor of Weekly Real Estate News. He can be reached at [email protected].
