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A new study suggests that the Bay Area could see nearly 33,000 new affordable housing units in the near future. The research, conducted by Enterprise Community Partners and the Bay Area Housing Finance Authority, found that 395 affordable housing developments are currently in various stages of pre-development across the nine-county Bay Area, which is one of the most expensive real estate markets in the country. 

According to the researchers, these developments cannot move forward without an additional $7.6 billion in public financing. A 2024 regional ballot measure could create a $10 billion to $20 billion regional housing bond dedicated to funding affordable housing developments across the region. BAHFA was authorized to place such a bond measure on the ballot through its enabling legislation in 2019.

“The good news is that the sheer size of the predevelopment pipeline gives Bay Area cities, towns and counties a good running start toward meeting the affordable housing production challenge laid down by the state,” said BAHFA Director Kate Hartley. “But to avoid squandering this head start, it’s essential that we unlock the money needed to move these projects from planned to occupied.”

According to the researchers, affordable homes typically are funded through multiple sources, including Low-Income Housing Tax Credits and bonds, commercial mortgages and additional local, regional and state dollars that fill the gap between the cost of the development and the financing secured through debt and equity.

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Nearly half (45%) of Bay Area renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing, and a quarter spend over 50%. The State of California’s most recent Regional Housing Needs Allocation Plan found the Bay Area needs 180,000 more affordable homes by 2031 to meet demand. Unlocking the affordable homes currently in pre-development and ready to be built would meet nearly 20% of this goal, and a regional bond would create a pathway toward achieving that, according to the researchers.

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