A new forecast by Fannie Mae’s (OTCQB: FNMA) Economic and Strategic Research Group is predicting mortgage rates to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.3% and 6.2%, respectively, downward revisions of three-tenths for each.
The revised forecast was mirrored by a mild upward revision for predicted existing home sales in 2025. Fannie Mae also estimated that real gross domestic product (GDP) to be 1.7% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, modest downward revisions attributed to weaker incoming data and evolving trade policy.
“We expect the recent pullback in mortgage rates will provide a small boost to home sales this year,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “While our latest forecast calls for a period of modestly slower economic growth, historically, interest rates have been the most important driver of home sales. We think mortgage rates will move even lower within the next quarter and ultimately close the year at approximately 6.3%, which could be low enough to generate some extra sales from any would-be buyers still waiting on the sidelines.”
We need it at 3% oe less.