The pressure from elevated mortgage rates drove down the Home Purchase Sentiment Index in (HPSI) last month, according to Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA).
Last month’s HPSI sank by 2.4 points to 64.5, with five of the HPSI’s six components decreasing month-over-month, including the components measuring perceived homebuying and home-selling conditions. However, the full index is up 3.7 points year-over-year.
“Mortgage rates persistently over 7% appear to be deepening the malaise consumers feel about the home purchase market,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist. “In fact, high mortgage rates surpassed high home prices as the top reason why consumers think it’s a bad time to buy a home, a survey first. Notably, the share of consumers expressing pessimism about homebuying conditions hit a new survey high in September, with 84% now indicating that it’s a bad time to buy a home. On the sell side, respondents also listed unfavorable mortgage rates as the top reason why they believe it’s a bad time to sell a home. This indicates to us that many homeowners are probably not eager to give up their ‘locked-in’ lower mortgage rates anytime soon, but it also may reflect the worry of some homeowners that sale values might be suppressed slightly if the pool of qualified homebuyers is constrained by elevated mortgage rates.”
September’s HSPI found the percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home dropping from 18% to 16%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 82% to 84%. The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 66% to 63%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell increased from 34% to 37%.
The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months remained increased from 41% to 42%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 26% to 23%. The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 18% to 17%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up remained unchanged at 46% and the share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 34% to 37%.
The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months share decreased from 78% to 75%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 22% to 23%. And the percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 22% to 18%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 12% to 13% and the percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 65% to 68%.
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