Single-family mortgage origination volume is expected to increase from $2 trillion in 2025 to $2.2 trillion in 2026, according to a new forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
The trade group is also predicting purchase originations will increase 7.7% to $1.46 trillion next year while refinance originations will rise by 9.2% to $737 billion. By loan count, total mortgage origination volume is expected to increase 7.6% to 5.8 million loans in 2026, up from 5.4 million loans expected this year.
“We expect that home sales will increase in 2026,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist and senior vice president for research and business development. “The combination of lower mortgage rates and flat home prices has helped affordability conditions improve. While mortgage rates are not expected to decline further, housing supply has increased in recent months, which will ease home-price growth and provide more housing options for prospective buyers. The increase in inventories will put downward pressure on home prices across the country. Home-price declines nationally are expected to decline for several quarters over the next few years.”
Fratantoni is also predicting two more rate cuts in 2025 by the Federal Reserve as the US economy grows at a below-trend rate over the next year as the job market grows a little weaker. He also expected inflation to be stubborn as consumer pay higher prices due to tariffs on imported goods. As a result of this economic state, Fratantoni believed the 10-year Treasury yield will stay above 4% and mortgage rates will hover between 6% and 6.5%.
The MBA is also forecasting a 24% increase in overall commercial mortgage originations and a 16% hike in multifamily volume.
“The CRE lending market has remained strong with new originations increasing year-over-year during the first six months of 2025, said Judie Ricks, MBA’s associate vice president of CREF Research. “The multifamily market experienced similar strength in the first half of the year that is expected to continue into 2026. Notably, agency loans accounted for more than 40% of multifamily originations in 2024.”
