A new forecast by Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is predicting the sale of 4.71 million existing homes during 2024.
Speaking before NAR’s fifth annual year-end Real Estate Forecast Summit: The Year Ahead, Yun predicted 2024 home sales will rise 13.5% year-over-year while the median home price will reach $389,500, a 0.9% uptick from this year.
Yun stated there will be 1.48 million housing starts in 2024, including 1.04 million single-family and 440,000 multifamily properties. He expected rental housing prices to calm while foreclosure rates remain at historically low levels of less than 1% of all mortgages.
“The demand for housing will recover from falling mortgage rates and rising income,” Yun said. “In addition, housing inventory is expected to rise by around 30% as more sellers begin to list after delaying selling over the past two years. The selected top 10 U.S. markets will experience faster recovery in home sales.”
NAR also identified the 10 real estate markets with the most pent-up housing demand that will outperform other metro areas in 2024:
- Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
- Dayton-Kettering, Ohio
- Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina
- Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pennsylvania
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas
- Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tennessee
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Delaware-Maryland
- Portland-South Portland, Maine
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Virginia-Maryland-West Virginia
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What are the estimated sales for 2023 and/or increase or decline?
With the 13.5% increase YOY of 4.71M the amount of homes sold in 2023 (as of this post) would be 4.1M