Two new data reports show home prices are still rising, albeit at a slower pace.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain for September, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.0%, down from 2.1% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite posted a 1.4% year-over-year gain, down from 1.6% in the previous month.
The National Index posted a -0.3% month-over-month decrease while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.5% before the seasonal adjustment in September. After the seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a 0.2% increase while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.2% and 0.1%.
Chicago, New York and Boston reported the highest year-over-year gains with year-over-year price increases of 5.5%, 5.2% and 4.1%, respectively. Tampa posted the smallest year-over-year growth, falling 4.1%.
“The housing market’s deceleration accelerated in September, with the National Composite posting just a 1.3% annual gain—the weakest performance since mid-2023,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This marks a continued slide from August’s 1.4% increase and represents a stark contrast to the double-digit gains that characterized the early post-pandemic era. National home prices continued trailing inflation, with September’s CPI running 1.7 percentage points ahead of housing appreciation. This marks the widest gap between inflation and home-price growth since the two measures diverged in June, with the spread continuing to widen each month.”
Godec added, “Markets that were pandemic darlings—particularly in Florida, Arizona, and Texas—are now experiencing outright price declines. Meanwhile, traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to pre-pandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics.”
Separately, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported third quarter home prices were up 2.2% year-over-year. Prices were up by a slight 0.2% between the second and third quarters.
Home prices rose in 44 states and the District of Columbia year-over-year during the third quarter. The five states with the highest annual appreciation were Illinois (6.9%), New York (6.8%), North Dakota (6.3%), New Jersey (5.9%), and Connecticut (5.8%). Prices were down in six states, with Florida recording the most significant price decline at 2.3%.
