Two new data reports are highlighting mild increases in home prices during October.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index reported a 1.4% annual gain for October, up from a 1.3% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 1.9%, down from a 2.0% increase in the previous month, while the 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.3%, down from a 1.4% increase in the previous month.
The pre-seasonally adjusted US National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices each reported negative month-over-month changes in October – a -0.3% drop for the 20 City Composite Index and -0.2% decreases for both the 10-City Composite and US National Indices. After the seasonal adjustment, the US National Index reported a monthly increase of 0.4% and both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month gains of 0.3%
Chicago reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 5.8% increase in October, followed by New York and Cleveland with annual increases of 5.0% and 4.1%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return in October with a 4.2% decline.
“October’s data show the housing market settling into a much slower gear, with the National Composite Index up only about 1.4% year over year – among the weakest performances since mid-2023,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This figure is essentially unchanged from September’s 1.3% annual gain and represents less than a third of the 5.1% average home price increase recorded in 2024. National home prices also continue to lag consumer inflation, as October’s CPI is estimated around 3.1% (based on a provisional index the US Treasury announced due to the federal data shutdown) – roughly 1.8 percentage points higher than the latest housing appreciation. In real terms, that gap implies a slight decline in inflation-adjusted home values over the past year.”
Separately, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported home prices rose 0.4% in October, according to its seasonally adjusted monthly House Price Index. On a year-over-year measurement, prices were up 1.7%.
For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly home price changes ranged from -0.4% in the East South Central division to +1.0% in the West South Central division. The 12-month changes ranged from -0.7% in the West South Central division to +5.3% in the Middle Atlantic division.
FHFA Director Bill Pulte made no public acknowledgement of the home price increases.
