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Sales of new single-family houses in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 739,000, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This marked a 10.6% spike from the revised June rate of 668,000 and it is also 5.6% above the July 2023 estimate of 700,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in July was $429,800 while the average sales price was $514,800. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 462,000, which represents a supply of 7.5 months at the current sales rate.

Robert Dietz, the chief economist with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), had questions regarding the new federal data.

“While mortgage rates moved lower in July, the Census estimated gains for new home sales do not match recent industry survey data including the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index which showed weakness in the current sales index,” said Dietz. “The Census estimate of new home sales is often volatile and subject to revisions and it is possible that the July estimate for sales will be revised lower next month. NAHB is forecasting gradual improvements for the home building sector as the Fed eases monetary policy and mortgage interest rates trend lower.”

First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi was also cautious about the new data.

“Given 86% of existing homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6%, they’re not financially incentivized to sell in today’s elevated rate environment,” said Kushi. “In the resale market, the existing homeowner will simply choose not to sell if they don’t have to, whereas builders need to move their inventory. To do this, builders are offering incentives, such as mortgage rate buy-downs, to entice buyers off the sidelines. You may not be able to find an existing home for sale, but you can build one.”