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When to expect the housing market downturn to conclude, according to Wells Fargo

Empty asphalt road and New year 2023 concept. Driving on an empty road in the mountains to upcoming 2023 and leaving behind old 2022. Concept for success and passing time.

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Historically speaking, most U.S. recessions arrive after a period of rate tightening by the Federal Reserve. As the Fed raises interest rates to tame inflation, it begins to cause economic activity to contract. Of course, “Fed-induced recessions” usually start in the housing market.

We’re already seeing it.

Not long after mortgage rates spiked this spring, the U.S. housing market slipped into a housing downturn. That housing downturn has seen new- and existing-home sales slump across the country. In some markets, like Seattle and Las Vegas, it has already spurred a home price correction.

The silver lining for agents and builders? Usually, the U.S. housing market is FIFO: first into the recession and first out of the recession. The big exception was the housing bubble, which saw the U.S. housing market slip into a downturn in 2006. That downturn, which lasted through 2011, was three times as long as the Great Recession.

 

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