Weekly Real Estate News
Summary
Redfin's November 12 analysis estimated 70.5% more sellers than buyers nationwide in October 2026. Only Nassau County, Newark and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, were seller's markets among 50 major metros; the estimates rely on Redfin and MLS data and are subject to revision.
Only three of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan housing markets favored sellers in October, according to a Redfin analysis released November 12. The three were clustered in the Northeast: Nassau County, New York; Newark, New Jersey; and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania.
Redfin estimates that the United States had 70.5% more sellers than buyers during the month, the largest imbalance in its series dating to 2013. That national figure masks considerable local variation. The three seller-favored markets had fewer listings relative to prospective purchasers, while much of the Sun Belt had the opposite problem.
Where sellers still hold an advantage
Redfin measured 24.7% fewer sellers than buyers in Nassau County, 14.3% fewer in Newark and 12.1% fewer in Montgomery County. All three gaps narrowed from September. Milwaukee, previously seller-favored, shifted into Redfin’s balanced category.
Under the company’s definitions, a seller’s market has more than 10% fewer sellers than buyers; a buyer’s market has more than 10% more sellers than buyers. Six of the 50 markets were balanced and 41 favored buyers. Those thresholds are analytical classifications, not guarantees about an individual property’s bargaining position.
Miami showed the most extreme buyer-favored imbalance, with an estimated 195.8% more sellers than buyers. Nashville followed at 159.5% and Las Vegas at 149.9%. Extensive homebuilding in some Sun Belt markets has added choices at a time when higher financing costs have pushed would-be buyers out of the market.
Buyer estimates require caution
Redfin counted approximately 895,752 buyers and 1,526,984 sellers nationally in October. The buyer count is an estimate based on proprietary information about the time between a first home tour and closing, combined with multiple-listing-service information on active listings and pending transactions. Seller estimates come from active MLS listings. The series is seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.
These are therefore estimates of active market participation rather than a census of every person interested in purchasing a home. They also cannot show whether an individual buyer qualifies for financing or whether a listed home is appropriately priced.
For agents, the widening imbalance changes the discussion with sellers. Listing a property at a price supported by recent closed transactions, assessing competition and understanding concession expectations are increasingly important in markets where inventory exceeds the pool of ready buyers. In the three Northeast seller’s markets, limited supply may still support competition for desirable homes.
The report arrived alongside the National Association of Realtors’ October sales figures, which showed existing transactions falling 5.5% month over month. The two studies measure different things: one estimates buyer-seller balance, while the other counts completed transactions. Together they indicate a market in which available homes are not automatically translating into closings.
