Weekly Real Estate News
Summary
Redfin's November 12 housing-market update for the four weeks ended November 8 found the median modeled monthly mortgage payment at $2,755, a six-week low, while pending sales remained at the lowest level in the company's series dating to 2021. The data are subject to revision and measure a different period from NAR's October closings.
Lower prices and borrowing costs reduced the typical monthly mortgage payment to a six-week low, but the improvement has yet to produce a meaningful rebound in contracts, according to Redfin’s November 12 housing-market update.
For the four weeks ending November 8, Redfin estimated a median monthly mortgage payment of $2,755, calculated using a 7.18% mortgage rate. That was down from $2,820 a month earlier. The median sale price was $388,613, down 0.9% from a year earlier, marking the fourth consecutive week of annual declines in this series.
Yet seasonally adjusted pending home sales were nearly unchanged from the preceding week, falling 0.1%. The 275,980 pending sales in Redfin’s measure represented the lowest reading in its records dating to 2021, with a 15.54% year-over-year decline.
Cheaper payments have not revived contracts
The reduction in modeled payments reflects both lower rates and weaker sale prices. It does not mean every prospective buyer can obtain that payment. Actual affordability depends on loan amount, down payment, credit qualifications, taxes, insurance and financing costs.
New listings slipped 1.3% from the previous week while active listings were essentially unchanged. The median home spent 51 days on the market, two days longer than a year earlier. Redfin reported price cuts on 21% of listings and an average sale-to-list price ratio of 98.2%.
The national pattern also conceals large local differences. Redfin measured a 9.3% annual decline in median sale prices in Austin and a 6.9% decline in Fort Lauderdale, while San Francisco posted an 18% increase. Those figures are from the company’s rolling four-week dataset, not its full-month price series.
Different indicators, different periods
Freddie Mac’s separate November 12 survey subsequently showed the 30-year fixed mortgage average falling to 7.11%. That figure should not be substituted for the 7.18% weekly rate used in Redfin’s payment calculation for the earlier measurement window.
The National Association of Realtors also reported a 5.5% October decline in completed existing-home sales. Those closings generally reflect contracts signed earlier, while Redfin’s tracker includes more recent pending transactions. The combined picture suggests that a modest improvement in the cost of borrowing has not yet overcome the broader constraints on demand.
Redfin’s figures draw on listings and transactions in more than 900 metropolitan areas and are subject to revision. For lenders, brokers and agents, subsequent purchase-application and pending-sales data will be important in determining whether lower payments translate into actual transaction volume.
