Realtor.com has updated its housing forecast for the second half of the year, with predictions for a less onerous mortgage rate level and fewer home sales.
The revised forecast points to mortgage rates averaging 6.4% throughout the year before sliding to 6.1% by year’s end. This is lower than its 2023 forecast from last November that predicted an average of 7.4% throughout the year and a 7.1% level by New Year’s Eve.
Realtor.com is also predicting a 0.6% depreciation in the existing home median sales price – it previously predicted a 5.4% appreciation. Also in the forecast are 4.2 million existing home sales, lower than the previously forecasted 4.5 million, plus a 5% decline in the existing homes for sale inventory compared to the 22.8% increase predicted last November.
On the rental side, Realtor.com is now forecasting a 0.9% drop in median rents for the remainder of the year, a significant shift from 6.3% increase originally predicted for the year. But despite this pull-back, rental prices are still historically high with the average rent about $350 more than it was pre-pandemic.
“High inflation and the Fed’s actions to curb it have had a significant impact on the housing market this year. And while inflation has begun to ease, the sustained spike in mortgage rates was enough to stifle the housing market after several years of low rates and strong activity,” said Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “The housing market has really seen a double whammy in 2023, with a retrenchment in the number of homes for sale coupled with still-high prices and mortgage rates that have kept both first-time and repeat buyers on the sidelines. The vast majority of homeowners locked in low rates during the pandemic and aren’t particularly excited to give them up in order to buy a new home, unless they really need to move for personal reasons.
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my area in San bernardino. # bdrm 2 bath homes are selling above january sales. Listing are down 20% percent, but for some reason Pendings are are staying at the same rate as of january. Priceing is between 430-470 for the 3 bdrm 2 bath homes.Selling within 10-14 days.
Absolutely astounding! NOT!!! The crystal should be replaced!!!
Who is Realtor.com anyway?
This government manipulation of interest rates is bad for affordable rentals and first time home buyers. They are wrong to make such drastic increases.
Agreed!!
Bad for all buyers. The Fed is tone deaf to the American people.
Our market is Los Angeles & the San Fernando Valley is not seeing much of a slow down. Less inventory, yes… therefore less sales, but homes are selling quickly & oftentimes with multiple offers. We all thought the market would crash. I believe there’s a need for a change in our government administration though, to boost national moral & get priorities in order. That’ll help many markets across the board. JESSYCA NYGREN Broker-Associate • Coldwell Banker Realty • 818.416.0130 •
Nice plug, Jessica ????
The Government created the Inflation and is now trying to “fight” that same inflation they created! Talk about “Affordable Housing” … their actions caused even less homes to be “affordable”! Because rates are high, existing owners (with 3% loans) don’t want to sell at this time and have to go pay much higher interest rates at another home (maybe 6% if they were lucky!). So – thank you Federal Government: Pump Money into the system, cause Inflation and then add to the problem by raising interest rates and there being little or no supply!
REALTOR.com is totally manipulated toward promoting NAR Agents—Simply a marketing monster No a reliable source of data!!