The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is forecasting that total commercial mortgage origination volume will increase to $805.5 billion in 2026 from the $633.7 billion expected in 2025 while multifamily origination volume will rise to $399.2 billion in 2026 from the $330.6 billion expected in 2025.
“The CRE lending market showed strength throughout 2025,” said Judith Ricks, associate vice president of CREF Research. “Commercial originations increased year-over-year during the first six months, and this growth continued in the second half of the year. The multifamily market experienced similar strength throughout the year, and that is expected to continue in 2026. We believe much of this activity came from refinance and acquisition activity as borrowers were able to take advantage of relatively favorable rates. As a result, we expect this to reduce the amount of mortgage debt scheduled to mature over the next few years.”
The MBA also reported that 17% ($875 billion) of the $5 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors is scheduled to mature this year, a 9% decrease from the $957 billion that was scheduled to mature in 2025.
“While commercial mortgage maturities remain elevated in 2026, the 9 percent decline from 2025 suggests that the market is beginning to move past the peak of the maturity wave in recent years,” said Reggie Booker, MBA’s associate vice president of commercial/multifamily research. “The variation across investor types and property sectors underscores the importance of asset quality, capital structure, and lender flexibility as borrowers navigate refinancing decisions in changing market conditions.”
