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The Mortgage Bankers Association has lowered its outlook for U.S. mortgage originations in both 2026 and 2027 as elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on housing demand and refinancing activity.
MBA’s September Mortgage Finance Forecast calls for approximately $2.123 trillion in total mortgage originations in 2026, down from $2.147 trillion in its August forecast. The association now expects about $2.101 trillion in originations in 2027, compared with $2.144 trillion projected a month earlier.
The revised forecast comes as MBA expects mortgage rates to remain near current levels over its forecast horizon following the Federal Reserve’s September rate increase.
Purchase and refinance expectations move lower
MBA’s September outlook projects approximately $1.423 trillion in purchase mortgage originations for 2026. Its August forecast had called for roughly $1.434 trillion in purchase volume and $713 billion in refinancing.
The association also reduced its 2028 total origination forecast to approximately $2.16 trillion from $2.184 trillion in August.
The revisions underscore how the renewed rise in borrowing costs is reshaping expectations for lenders after the industry entered 2026 anticipating a stronger recovery in mortgage activity.
Home-sales outlook also reduced
MBA now forecasts existing-home sales at an annualized pace of approximately 4.105 million in 2026, down from the roughly 4.183 million pace projected in August.
The association’s broader housing data have also shown pressure on demand. Mortgage applications for newly constructed homes fell 5.5% from a year earlier in August and declined 6% from July, according to MBA’s Builder Application Survey. MBA said applications to purchase newly built homes declined for a fifth consecutive month and reached their lowest level of 2026.
MBA’s latest construction outlook estimates single-family housing starts at an annualized pace of roughly 900,000 units in both 2026 and 2027, below the 940,000 units recorded in 2025.
Mortgage rates expected to remain elevated
Following the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16 policy meeting, MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said longer-term rates, including mortgage rates, had already incorporated expectations for additional monetary-policy tightening.
MBA forecasts two additional Federal Reserve rate increases over the next year and expects mortgage rates to remain near current levels over the forecast horizon.
That environment leaves lenders facing another period of constrained purchase activity, limited refinancing opportunities and intense competition for available mortgage volume.
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association September 2026 Mortgage Finance Forecast; MBA Research; MBA FOMC commentary.
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