A Phil Hall Op-Ed: Last week, I used this column to offer my opinion on Vice President Kamala Harris’ plans for fixing the challenges facing the housing market if she was elected president. This week, the column is devoted to the plans from former President Donald Trump – which is not going to be easy, since Trump has barely acknowledged the housing market in his campaign to regain the White House.
One could argue that Trump’s omission of housing issues from his campaign is rooted in a political philosophy that is antithetical to Harris’ approach. With Harris, the solutions are patches in the form of government programs covering grants, tax credits, incentives and rent caps. The problem is that they don’t address the underlying problems impacting housing and the wider economy, but rather Harris tries to make adjustments so people can adjust to the current.
Trump, on the other hand, is looking at the bigger problem – an economy that doesn’t work for the average American – and he is pledging to fix that. In Trump’s vision, people will not require special government assistance and incentives – as he views the situation, prices will not be sky-high in a healthy economy and people will have more money in their wallets for purchasing lower-priced goods.
In concept, this makes sense. During the Biden-Harris era, the price of everything has soared. Reversing the policies that created the mess would benefit Americans, especially for those who cannot afford to get into homeownership.
However, Trump’s focus has three very serious flaws.
First, Trump isn’t addressing the basic problem that housing demand continues to outpace supply. Harris is proposing a goal of 3 million new homes in her first four years as president. To her credit, she is acknowledging the need to build more homes, but her goal is unrealistic – for many housing developments, it could take four years or more just to get local zoning approval and financing, especially if those projects emphasize affordable housing.
One might imagine that Trump would listen to the concerns of many housing industry professionals, especially the National Association of Home Builders, who argue that federal regulations and codes drive up the cost of housing construction and limit output. Trump’s administration was notable for trying to cut through the regulatory miasma to make it easier for businesses to operate, but he has yet to address if this will be repeated for home construction if he is re-elected.
Second, Trump has said nothing about the encroachment of hedge funds and real estate investment trusts into the single-family housing market. A recent study by the New York University Stern School of Business determined that institutional investors decreased available housing stock for homeowners by as much as 30%. Harris has spoken vaguely about dealing with “corporate landlords,” but this issue metastasized during the Biden-Harris era and no attempt has been made to stop it. Trump needs to be confronted by this issue.
Third, Trump has made illegal immigration a centerpiece of his campaign, and rightfully so – the alleged “Border Czar” failed to do her job and the nation is in worst shape for it. But Trump is going in the wrong direction by conflating that issue with housing.
Trump made an odd promise that he would ban illegal immigrants from obtaining mortgages, which is something that a president cannot unilaterally achieve – and in any event, that’s not a dilemma creating problems in the housing market. He also promised that he would make companies offering subsidized housing require proof of citizenship of their tenants – but one can easily imagine civil liberty lawsuits claiming that would run afoul of the Fair Housing Act.
And while Trump is promising a mass deportation of the illegals who entered the country in the Biden-Harris era, that could spark a new problem in terms of expanding housing supply when one considers the disproportionate number of illegals employed in the construction trades. Trump has offered no proposal to address how he can keep the construction industry operating if so many of its workers wind up getting arrested for deportation.
One wild card from Trump was the unexpected new pledge to “get SALT back” – the restoration of state and local taxes that was capped at $10,000 as part of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. This pledge is obviously meant to attract wealthier Blue State voters who were most impacted by the SALT cap and it is not something that will help the wider nation.
Of course, there is more to the election than housing issues. As for which candidate deserves your vote – well, that’s your decision to make on Nov. 5.
Phil Hall is editor of Weekly Real Estate News. He can be reached at [email protected].
Illustration: hoekstrarogier / Pixabay
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Hello Phil,
As a Realtor for 30+years, HARRIS is going in the wrong direction with her commitment to build (3) million homes. STOP!
Let have “either” of the soon to be elected Presidents, simply Increase the Federal Minimum Wage. Immediately. ($18 – 20 per hour)
Then, every wage earner (household) can “work. pay their bills. create a good credit score. save some money for their own down payment & apply for their (3.5% FHA Loan).
Constitution: ALL People are Created Equal. That’s the program offered… go for it with gusto!!
Everyone deserves a fair wage & the Corporate Structure will find it necessary to adjust & share in the wealth & opportunities this Great Country [ USA ] has to offer.
Raising the minimum wage is no answer. Jobs like McDonalds and other minimum wage jobs were not meant to raise a family of 4. These were the jobs we worked in during high school and some college. It also helped mothers during school hours so they could be home when the kids got home.
Raising the minimum wage will only make the items we buy/need to live, more expensive, we are experiencing this right now. Business owners will not make less money, they will just raise their prices even more to cover the increase in their labor costs.
I can’t believe anyone would think someone can pay for a mortgage on $20 per hour, even if we could get minimum wage raised to that. What property do you think someone could buy for $800 per week?
For a single person under 65, health insurance alone is $500-$900 per month. So, that’s one week of pay, gone.
Car payment and car insurance together is likely to be in the neighborhood of $600-$800. That’s the second week gone.
Utilities like water, gas, electric, sewer, trash are likely to be in the neighborhood of $200-$300 per month.
Phone bill, internet, cable likely to be $100-$200, or more, per month.
Gas or electricity to drive a car is $200-$400, or more. There goes the 3rd week’s earnings. That leaves one week of earnings to pay for food, medication, replacement of communication items if needed, school costs, clothes, some small entertainment that is unaffordable…
And I forgot to subtract taxes out of that $20 per hour. And I forgot to subtract rent. Which is usually half of what low income earners make.
Most 1 bedrooms in LA county are $1700 – $2200.
No lender would lend to someone who lives on a budget like that.
After taxes, $40 an hour might do it, if the hopeful buyers saved for five to ten years for a down payment. Maybe.
None of that would help our housing market today.
Harris has it right. We need more affordable housing built.
EVERYTHING RAN WELL IN HOUSING WHEN TRUMP WAS IN CHARGE BUT EVERYTHING WENT DOWN THE TOILET WITH TRATOROUS DEMOCRATS IN CHARGE WITH EVEN GEORGE SOROS PULLING THE STRINGS OF PUPPETS TO DESTROY THE BEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD . WE NEED MORE TRUMPS IN CHARGE.
Bravo. We need Trump. How is the talking head going to build 3 million homes? Maybe by taking single family homes from people and build apartment complexes! Nonsense. She hasn’t got a good idea in her head. She says what she thinks will get her elected
Nothing ran well with trump. What ran well? He inherited a growing economy. He lost jobs. Before covid. His response to Covid was atrocious. Hundreds of thousands of Americans died. The whole world suffered. Chips that were made overseas were no longer being shipped. Shipping came to a stand still. Biden fixed it so chips are made here, in the US. Do you know how drug prices skyrocketed under trump? Biden made diabetes drugs affordable. He made sure Medicare can negotiate drug prices now. He’s working on doing more to help Americans. Why do you want to live under an old man, trump, who can’t speak a straight sentence, likely suffers with dementia, and who has said he will be a “dictator on day one?” Do you want a dictator to tell you what to do in every facet of your life? Dictators take the public’s tax money and use it for themselves. Dictators let government infrastructure die. Roads, bridges, schools, libraries, parks, etc. Don’t you like Yosemite and Yellowstone? Do you want the gov telling you who you can marry and where you can live? What doctors you can see? Do you want the gov monitoring your little girls, or your wifes? Do you want public schools to disappear? If you want all that, then I understand why you think trump would be great. But whatever you think, he will destroy our economy. Because that’s what dictators do. There is no example of a successful dictatorship that has happy, thriving citizens.
Do you see how the citizens of Russia live? It’s a horrible life for them. The rule of law does not exist in Russia. Why would you want that for your family? Why would you want the government in your personal business 24-7? What has trump ever done in real estate, or otherwise, for anyone but himself? I’d really like to know.
Yes. Indeed. Bring Trump back!
wish this balanced approach was more widespread! Thanks for an even-handed, non-politically biased thought!
Harris’s plans will all be paid for by raising taxes on American citizens. Once we bring down the price of fuel by supporting drilling oil and fracking here in our country, we will create more jobs and bring down the cost of goods because transport will be cheaper
No mention of the increase in infrastructure work, or its costs. Also lost in the avalanche of campaign BS are the increased size of the flood plain and the increased premiums for same or how that will affect “affordability”.
I just want to know where is all the money coming from for these grants, tax credits and government programs Harris is pushing. Rob Peter to Pay Paul. Sounds like more to the national debt. Why doesn’t any journalist ask her this question.
The money comes straight from USDA look it up! Millions and Millions of our taxpayers money given away! And of course all the money has a congressman’s name endorsing it! This has been going on for YEARS!
Trump already has a history of creating a good housing market. Getting Energy independence back, getting rid of regulations and not providing or giving money/services to illegal aliens (they will leave fairly quickly). We will be back to lower interest rates and folks getting higher pay and more money in their pockets. Trump eliminating the tax on tips and the tax on overtime will help alot! Although we need a Republican Senate and House majority. I am sure some Dems will vote for that too.
Obama and Biden increased drilling and energy independence. Much to many Dems frustration. But you know, Dems still supported our gov. trump’s housing market was good because of what Obama did to save our stock market and our economy after Bush tanked it in 2008. Interest rates started going way down, way before trump took office. trump came in after our economy had been saved. If he gets in office again, he will destroy our economy. Again, dictators don’t have good economies. They don’t care about economies or their people. Dictators destroy economies. trump said he will be a dictator on day one.
Anyone who thinks that’s a good thing has not studied what happens to governments under dictatorships.
When evaluating the likely effectiveness of policies, it is critically important to focus on the political candidate’s experience, track record and performance in office rather than their rhetoric.
President Trump has built very successful businesses, golf courses, housing, hotels and other commercial buildings, which employed thousands in the private sector. During his presidency, inflation was low, jobs, salaries and wages grew rapidly and government regulations were substantially reduced, making it easier for Americans to build and produce things and prosper.
Conversely, Kamala Harris has a long record of favoring bigger government and more regulations, which increase costs and limit the economic freedoms of individuals and businesses. She honed her big-government control-freak ideology during her political career in the most regulated and expensive state in the union – CA. And, she assures us her “values haven’t changed” (that’s the problem).
Kamala Harris was the deciding vote for the Democrats’ Inflation Acceleration Act, which drove the cost of living up for all Americans by over 20% in 3 years; historically high debilitating inflation. Harris has no experience building anything other than costly regulations and bureaucracies that act as an impediment to progress and productivity.
Kamala Harris’ campaign “promise” of $25,000 for her favored group of first-time homebuyers represents the same flawed ideology of her Inflation Acceleration Act. When politicians throw large amounts of taxpayer money into a supply constrained system (i.e. a housing shortage), it will drive up costs and exacerbate the affordability problem. Kamala’s policies define insanity.
When it comes to inflation, housing shortages and most every other aspect of a free enterprise system, government is not the solution…it IS the problem. President Trump understands that; Harris does not.
Based on her record, Harris is a miserable failure, a huge liability and a threat to Americans, especially the Middle Class..
David, trump was not a serious business man. He inherited four hundred million dollars from his dad and subsequently ended up going bankrupt many times. His trump university was a scam that he had to pay 25 million to settle. He’s an adjudicated sex offender and he was recently convicted by a jury of his peers on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records. He incited the attack on the capital on Jan 6th. He’s known for not paying bills, lawyers, workers, etc. He was good friends with convicted sex offender, Jeffry Epstein, and he has had at least one complaint filed in court that he attacked 12 and 13 year old girls. That is not a successful business man. He is a failure of a human being. The man lives off credit and the good will of people he takes advantage of. It might help to research each item I mentioned. Especially the complaint. As a real estate agent, I do not see trump as any role model to follow. He lies to get what he wants. He has no ethics. I do not lie to my clients. trump is not an example worth noting.
As a former Democrat, I can say the Democrat party is pure evil now. Its platform is Marxism, abortion, assassination, genital mutilation, pedophilia, war, death and destruction of the nuclear family and therefore Western Civilization itself. It’s like 1865 again but this time the Democrats are communists, not confederates and they are totally controlled by foreign entities. The Democrat party is an occupying force that must be destroyed again.
This election is bigger than real estate/housing issues. We are literally in a battle between good & evil OR Americanism vs Globalism OR a Constitutional Republic vs a One World Govt aka Communism – pick one, they all apply. Trump’s plan is to bring back manufacturing, secure our borders, bring back drilling, deport illegals, remove tax on tips & tax on SSN, end unnecessary wars, ALL of this will help Americans, lift the economy, create jobs, etc. and this will improve housing. We saw a brief glimmer of this during his first term. However the UN, one worlders who have been chipping a way at America for decades have not stopped & have ramped up their destruction of our country, a Constitutional Republic—(that’s what we should be, not a democracy). Please read the Cloward-Priven strategy or Rules for Radicals or the Communist Manifesto.. these are favorite books of obama, hillary, gates, soros, kamala, etc. They have an agenda & they count on you being uninformed, buying their propaganda & getting hung up on buyer assistance, rates, pricing, comps, contract changes, etc. Division keeps you distracted, chaos & fear makes you compliant. Trump/ MAGA represents individual liberty, hope, optimism, Americanism, common sense, rule of law & this is a no-no for those who seek to destroy USA! Our survival is bigger than Trump, he is the messenger but you must be aware of thy enemy & their plans to destroy America from within.
Bravo Jay!