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For 124 consecutive months, spanning from the bottom of the housing crash in February 2012 through the top of the Pandemic Housing Boom in June 2022, national home prices as measured by the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose on a month-over-month basis. That was until last year’s mortgage rate shock set off a housing correction.

Through December, U.S. home prices have fallen for six straight months. Since peaking in June, U.S. home prices have fallen 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis, and 4.4% without seasonal adjustment.

On one hand, that 2.7% drop in single-family home prices marks the second-biggest price correction of the post–World War II era. On the other hand, the ongoing housing correction through December is a mild correction compared to the 26% peak-to-trough decline between 2007 and 2012.

Where does this housing correction head from here? The answer depends on who you ask.

In the bullish camp, you can find CoreLogic. The real estate research firm expects U.S. home prices to rise 3% between December 2022 to December 2023. If CoreLogic is right, then U.S. home prices would end 2023 back at price levels achieved at the height of the boom in June 2022.