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Foreclosures continue to rise toward pre-pandemic levels, according to new data from CoreLogic, but mortgage delinquencies are down. This is a positive sign, indicating that foreclosures will likely trend downward soon.

CoreLogic’s recent Loan Performance Insights report provides a deep look delinquency data for October 2022 with year-over-year comparisons. Although homes in some state of foreclosure rose from 0.2% to 0.3% during October, year over year, just 2.8% of all U.S. mortgages were in some stage of delinquency. This marks the 19th straight month of delinquency decline, nearing the lowest rate in over two decades.

“We like to look at those early delinquencies for warning signs,” said Molly Boesel, the principal economist at CoreLogic. Whereas foreclosures reflect older information — it is a slow process — delinquencies highlight the degree to which current borrowers may be struggling, she said.

In particular, Boesel said, the earliest delinquency period (between 30 and 59 days) is of primary concern. This subsection says a lot about what to expect for future foreclosures. And in the case of October 2022, the foreclosure rate increased from 1.2% to 1.3% year over year. But a press release from CoreLogic attributes this directly to the impact of Hurricane Ian on Florida homes.