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Home values are likely to fall next year, and some recent buyers may find themselves in the predicament of being underwater on their mortgages. But experts say most homeowners probably don’t need to worry too much.

A new analysis from real estate brokerage Redfin finds that if home values fall by its forecasted rate of 4% by the end of 2023, just 3.4% of homeowners who bought between January 2021 and September 2022 will owe more on their mortgage than the home is worth — aka be underwater.

Even if that 4% decline happens, the typical home purchased over the last two years will actually have gained $27,000 in value. Redfin also found that home prices would need to fall by 10% or more in 2023 for the typical home purchased over the past two years to lose value — a scenario it describes as “highly unlikely.”

After years of strong growth, home prices have been declining slightly in recent months. Experts are divided on whether prices will continue to fall next year. While Redfin expects a 4% price decline, Chief Economist Danielle Hale is forecasting that prices will rise at a pace of 5.4% in 2023. The experts at Zillow, on the other hand, say that prices will barely budge. They’re expecting a bump of 1.2%.