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Historically low mortgage rates had their moment in the sun in 2020. They rested far below 3% for months before America’s economic rebound pushed them back up in the winter of 2021. But data released on Thursday from Freddie Mac showed that mortgage rates idled below 3% again for an entire month, even with solid first-quarter GDP figures and encouraging consumer spending numbers.

Mortgage rates may look fickle, but the Treasury market rules them. If the 10-year yield rises it’s most likely the result of inflation expectations picking up, and with them, mortgage rates. When the 10-year-yield drops, inflation expectations are falling. That’s the simple answer.