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There’s no doubt about it: Soaring mortgage rates are an economic shock to the U.S. housing market. Over the past month alone, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has spiked from 3.11% to 5.11%. It’s both pricing out some stretched homebuyers and causing some would-be borrowers to lose their mortgage eligibility.

The swift move up in mortgage rates also has research firms re-gearing their housing forecast models.

Heading into 2022, real estate research firms presumed the Federal Reserve would put upward pressure on rates—but not like this. On the year, the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasted the average 30-year fixed rate would climb to 4%, while Fannie Mae forecasted a 3.3% mortgage rate by year’s end. We blew past those estimates weeks ago.