Weekly Real Estate News
In brief: Pending sales of existing U.S. homes fell 7.3% in September 2026, according to the National Association of Realtors. The Pending Home Sales Index dropped to 66.0, its lowest level since the series began in 2001, signaling weakness in the pipeline of upcoming home closings.
Contracts to buy previously owned homes fell sharply in September as rising mortgage rates squeezed affordability, according to figures released October 20 by the National Association of Realtors. The 7.3% monthly decline was far larger than the 0.5% decrease forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters.
Pending home sales were also 11.3% below their September 2025 level. The association’s index registered 66.0, a record low in the series dating to 2001, according to Reuters’ report on the NAR release.
Contract activity fell in every region
All four major regions recorded month-over-month declines. The West fell 9.2%, the South 8.2%, the Midwest 6.5% and the Northeast 4.2%. The national annual decline of 11.3% indicates that the weakness extended beyond a single monthly comparison.
Pending home sales measure signed contracts, not completed transactions. Most contracts turn into closed sales one or two months later, although cancellations and other complications can prevent some deals from closing. That makes the index a leading indicator of existing-home sales and purchase-mortgage demand.
Mortgage rates hit purchasing power
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the deterioration to quickly rising mortgage rates. The typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.40% in the preceding week, according to Freddie Mac data cited by Reuters. Higher borrowing costs raise monthly payments for buyers who need financing and can push otherwise qualified households out of their intended price range.
The result presents a challenge for real estate agents, home sellers and mortgage lenders entering the final months of 2026. A drop in contracts can foreshadow fewer closings and less purchase-loan volume, but the extent of that impact will depend on contract cancellations, financing conditions and subsequent sales activity.
Why the record needs context
The record-low designation applies to NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, not to a verified count of all homes sold. The September data describe transactions that went under contract during the month; they do not establish how many homes ultimately closed.
The release also differs from WRE’s earlier reporting on Redfin’s contract and cancellation data. NAR’s October 20 publication is a separate national index with its own methodology and a new record-low reading.
For the industry, the next test will be whether mortgage rates stabilize enough to revive contract signings or whether September’s weakness carries into year-end closings.
Sources: National Association of Realtors, October 20, 2026; Reuters, October 20, 2026.
