A Phil Hall Op-Ed: For most of the ongoing presidential campaign, the Biden team and its apologists in the legacy media have been berating voters for not appreciating the economy created under the 46th president. Belatedly, the people pushing the strategy realized this approach is not working, so there has been a shift from praising the accomplishments of the incumbent to inciting fear over his chief rival.
Most of the fearmongering has been wrapped in the notion of a “threat to democracy” – we’ll leave an analysis of those scare tactics to other outlets. But one prominent Biden backer has a unique approach in presenting Donald Trump as evil-in-waiting – and this involves mortgage rates.
Larry Summers, who was Treasury Secretary under President Clinton and would have been Federal Reserve Chairman under President Obama if the woke brigade didn’t arm-twist Obama into appointing a woman for the job (the lamentable Janet Yellen), took to social media last week to predict what a new Trump administration would mean to the economy and to homebuyers.
“Summers identified multiple pillars of Trump’s economic agenda that could accelerate inflation,” he tweeted on X (formerly Twitter), referring to himself in the third person. “These included compromising the independence of the @federalreserve, enlarging the federal budget deficit by extending his 2017 tax cuts, raising tariffs, rescinding Biden policies. It is difficult to predict the timing and the precise dynamics, but it is hard to imagine a policy package more likely to create stagflation than measures that directly raise prices (through tariffs), undermine competition, enlarge deficits, and excessively expand the money.”
“There is a real risk during a Trump presidency that we would again see mortgage rates above 10 percent as inflation expectations rose and long-term interest rates increased,” he added.
Of course, Summers is not looking at this situation as an impartial observer, but as a Democratic operative. This explains why he is trying to gaslight the public into thinking tax hikes are good for people and regulatory overkill encourages innovation.
But what is remarkable is Summers’ insistence that Trump would drive mortgage rates above 10%. In making this statement, Summers is quietly acknowledging Biden-era bungling that drove mortgage rates to their current level hovering around 7% – after all, rates were at 2.7% when Biden took office.
Summers’ real message is this: If you think things are bad now, they’ll get worse without Biden. In Summers’ imagination, Trump will pump up the inflation environment, causing the economy to pop and throwing the housing market into chaos.
Lest we forget, inflation was at 1.4% when Trump left office – it was not at 9%, as Biden has repeatedly lied. And it was Powell, who was reappointed by Biden in 2022, that infamously insisted inflation was “transitory” and things would snap back to normal sooner rather than later. Had Trump been re-elected in 2020, Powell would have been a one-term Fed chairman and it is unlikely that Powell’s many mistakes would have occurred.
In fairness, it would be helpful if the Trump campaign put forth its plan to address the many challenges facing the housing market. After all, the best way to fight silly ideas is to present intelligent solutions – and few things are sillier than Biden’s weird insistence that real estate agent commissions are responsible for record-high housing prices. To his credit, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. put forth his housing policies last October – whether those ideas create more problems than solutions can be debated.
At a time when many voters – especially the Gen Z demographic – are citing housing issues as a key factor in choosing elected officials, the Trump campaign has to address the concerns of the American public, while at the same time stamping out remarks by the likes of Summers that make a mockery of a serious subject.
Phil Hall is editor of Weekly Real Estate News. He can be reached at [email protected].
Photo by Gage Skidmore / Flickr Creative Commons
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Well said
I appreciated the author saying it’s not real estate commissions that make housing prices higher. It’s supply and demand.
Problem is Trump. He has no intelligent plans. Republicans need to do better than him.
Trump really does not understand the economy, and let’s face it really doesn’t care about anything but him.
As a successful long time business man Trump has a very clear understanding of the economy which is why it thrived while he was potus. Keep trying, I am sure someone will accept your talking points but you really should try lies that are a little more realistic.
Funny. Even WITHOUT a plan, as you say, Trump was able to keep mortgage/interest rates low, employment high, inflation low, keep us out of wars instead of the two – close to three- wars we are now facing. He also closed the border instead of adding 10 million illegals. What could Trump do if he DID have a plan?
What a liar. The CPI was at 7.6% and housing had gone up 27.5%. Don’t you know anything about housing?
So let’s throw Trump’s record out the window and go with the Dem talking points?
How about we go with reality? When that coincides with “Dem talking points” lets go with that. Inflation was close to boiling over at the end of Trump’s presidency due to Covid relief spending, but more due to the massive tax cuts that accrued mostly to top earners who have the most disposable income and spend in an inelastic way (They don’t care if the price goes up) and they drove inflation as did the housing market increasing over 25%. This also dramatically increased the debt and deficit.
If you got a big tax cut then you love Trumps’s handling of the economy but actually it was a disaster that necessitated the largest Fed rate increase ever that President Biden has had to clean up and live with politically
TAKE NOTE – THE ARTICLE SAYS THIS:
“Summers is not looking at this situation as an impartial observer, but as a Democratic operative”
The dems will do anything to try to take votes from Trump – by hook or by crook.
MOSTLY, BY CROOK!
TRUMP 2024!!!
OBAMA PUT IN PLACE INFRASTRUCTURE THAT HELPED THE FIRST HALF OF TRUMP’S TERM UNTILL HE MESSED THAT UP.
I highly doubt mortgage rates will get to 10% no matter who is President. That said, I prefer Biden who listens to his advisors instead of Trump how is a complete loose cannon and completely unpredictable (market loves unpredictability right?). Let’s not forget Biden has had to clean up Trump’s mess the last few years. Many of us have forgotten the economic despair we were put in because of Covid. Obama dealt with multiple pandemics during his 8 years and he took it in stride – we never suffered because of his leadership.
Trump does know business. That has been his life. He loves this country and the way it was designed to work. An honest look at the key factors between Trump and Biden is compelling. So don’t like Trump…yes he says things he shouldn’t and stirs up the pot. But this country was amazing under his leadership, except Covid. I am a Realtor and am tired of the NAR writing biased narratives and supporting a liberal viewpoint. Your forced constituents don’t all feel that way. Try…. Really try to be neutral politically.
Trump is NOT a business mastermind. Trump was the only casino owner who LOST money (and his casinos went bankrupt) during the 1990’s.
His entire business track record has been bankrupcies, with investors losing but Trump walking away with lots of money, and a long list of unpaid contractors.
After many bankruptcies, Deustche Bank was the only bank that would lend to Trump because of his endless messes, which included his own father having to bail him out several times in the millions of dollars. Now even Deustche Bank has backed away, with Axox now the sole lending bank to Trump.
Lots of investigations into Trump’s questionable finances for many decades running, long before Obama and Biden came along. It is clear that Trump’s dad gave him lots of clever people to help him push the limits of the law (and likely far beyond).
Trump has long been connected to mobsters, including “fixer” Roy Cohn who assisted defense of mobsters. You can be judged by the company you keep.
The fact of sexual predator, Roger Epstein dying in jail (suicide by sock stuffed in his throat) while he was supposed to be under close supervision and “suicide watch and see it happen” status, and Trump selected Bill Barr (Justice Department head at the time), and a long list of people who did NOT want Epstein to testify as to exactly who took advantage of Epsteins under-aged girls sexual encounters with rich and powerful men really makes me laugh when Trump supporters attack others for being “sexual predators” of under-aged people, when their own presidential favorite candidate and his handlers were close buddies with Epstein, until Epstein was caught and soon to be a key witness against others, and then (strangely) ended, Epstein ends up with a sock in his throat, which is the most unusual (and unlikely) suicide I’ve read about.
The non-disclosure agreements that Trump required for those working on “The Apprentice” are now telling, as they have expired and people are talking about exactly what Trump was like during those shows.
For all the frustratrations that voters in both parties have with their own candidate, Trump is the only one I can think of who exhibits clear sociopathic, psychopathic, and narcissistic tendencies that endanger the nation. Manipulation of the public, lies, and endless blaming (even against those who are on his side) is incredible to watch. He belittles even his own supporters, stating at one speech that he knows people call his supporters stupid, but Trump went on to say that he likes stupid people.
I don’t think Trump supporters are stupid. But I do think they are permitting Trump to rant and rave like a 3 year old with a temper tantrum. And perhaps that gives people relief from being frustrated with lots of things that we all feel that we can’t control and don’t like. But electing a man who has only ever cared about himself is dangerous.
This man was having sex with women while his wife was pregnant, and yet some of the religious conservative people applaud him, despite all his lifetime antics of unsavory behaviors, many of which are illegal. But he does have teams of people willing to defend him, including mobsters.
Well said Julie Fisher. Trump would like to throw the constitution out the window and is a wanna be dictator. This article is simply Trump Trash Talk.
I’m not an expert in how the U.S. economy is controlled, but it seems that NO president has sole control or even much influence on how the Feds control the flow of money and the interest rates that get charged to banks, which then affects bank lending and credit card rates.
I do not think that Trump or Biden have much say over the economy, as there are many moving parts that are under the influences of various agencies, congress, corporations, investors (foreign and domestic), etc.
Do I think Presidents can influence the economy in some ways? YES, but they don’t control every aspect of it, so I am tired of people blaming (or congratulating) Presidents when their influences are limited to certain executive actions and limited to whether or not the Congress will support bills that any particular president may support too.
Events happen to land at certain times that impact Presidents, such as Covid, or the Ukraine war, and how a President handles those unexpected events does matter; but they don’t control when such surprise occur, and their handling of those events is also complicated by other parts of the government that also have influence over how crisis are handled.
It seems that the blame game is simply a way to get votes from uneducated voters, and the blame game is also set in motion by educated people who like to manipulate their voter base.
I am surprised that I have not seen any comments about rising home prices and the massive influx of large investor groups that have purchased 20% of homes in the past few years. That mega injection of investor funds has pushed prices up, a lot, and few people seem to comment on that.
I would like to see the real estate industry propose limits on investors and how many homes they can buy as investment properties. When costs of housing are so high, I feel that investors should be severely limited in the number of homes any individual can own, either directly or through investment groups.
Foreign money is another annoying aspect of how the U.S. lets foreign money flow into the U.S., thus out competing U.S. residents who are struggling to afford the cost of living, including high rents.
Foreign funds might help in some investment classes, but I see no advantages with foreign investments in real estate, such as homes, farms, or agricultural lands.
It is hard enough for U.S. residents to deal with rising home and land prices, but add in foreign money that pushes prices higher, and it gets a lot harder.
Foreign money is also very difficult to trace its origins, whether that money was ethically earned or not. U.S. residents have to abide by many laws that others nations do not require, so it is a very unfair playing field.
The U.S. allows foreign investment in real estate at scales that most nations do not allow. Why is that? I don’t think it is helping most U.S. residents at all.
Why is the real estate industry silent on these topics?
Likely because the real estate industry makes a lot of money by keeping these practices as they are.