Source: Mondaq —
As we look ahead to 2023 with COVID-19 hopefully in the rearview mirror for the most part, we are seeing a number of predictions as to what is in store for 2023 and beyond. Rising interest rates, changing tenant demands and a cooling of the industrial market are just some of the factors that will play into how 2023 shakes out for commercial real estate. In short, while there are considerable pressures impacting the commercial real estate market as this article is written, the outlook for 2023 by most experts is generally positive with expected lessening of pressures into mid-to-late 2023.
Rising interest rates and high inflation
There has been some trepidation in the market in recent months in terms of the increases to interest rates in quick succession in the latter half of 2022. Underwriting criteria have become more strict, and lenders and investors alike have become more cautious. It is unclear how long the rise in interest rates will impact the market, which has led to increased caution among all real estate players and some owners pulling their deals from the market and some purchasers pulling out of deals and not being willing to take the risk on moving forward.
Related to the increasing hybrid nature of the office workforce, digital economies and virtual connectivity are top of mind for all players in the commercial real estate industry.
A slowdown is expected for at least the first half of 2023 in light of the uncertainty in the market. It is unclear whether rates will stabilize, increase or decrease and economists and the Bank of Canada potentially have different viewpoints as to how that looks. Investors and owners are cautious in terms of how high inflation will have an impact on their bottom line, with many companies expecting cuts to expenses and decreased revenues due to slowing consumer demand and workforce management pressures. That said, experts generally predict that the current unpredictability in the commercial real estate should stabilize in the middle of 2023. There remains a great deal of dry powder looking to be placed which bodes well for increased activity in mid to late-2023.
Changing tenant demands
One of the longer-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a push by tenants for more flexible office space, including communal areas, ability to “hotel” employees, and robust and versatile electronic and virtual connectivity. The increasing acceptance of (and demand from workers for) a “hybrid” arrangement presents unique challenges for landlords, owners and retailers alike. How buildings and office space are used is undergoing a major shift. Tenants and landlords, especially public company tenants and landlords, are increasingly also focused on ESG considerations and related reporting to their shareholders.
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