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Based on new industry polling data by Zillow, the U.S. housing market is expected to return to pre-pandemic, 2019 norms — at least in terms of inventory and the share of purchases made by first-time homebuyers by 2024.

The dwindling supply of homes for sale has been a key driver of the recent explosion in U.S. home values, which have risen 32% in the past two years. Total inventory has fallen from a monthly average of 1.6 million units in 2018 and 2019 to just over 1 million in 2021, and monthly figures in 2022 are lower still.

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