Source: Terry Savage —
Americans may be excused for wondering where this recession talk is coming from. Economic growth (GDP) turned nicely positive in the third quarter. The stock market has rallied, regaining some, though not all of this year’s losses, on hopes the Fed will declare victory and ease up on interest rate hikes.
Consumer confidence dipped a bit last month, but consumer spending increased 0.6% in October for the second straight month even after adjusting for higher prices. Much of that is going on credit cards, with outstanding balances rising to pre-pandemic highs.
Jobs are still plentiful, though there is more news of potential layoffs. Corporate earnings are in line with lowered expectations, also giving stock prices a boost. And savers are finally getting rewarded with higher rates on Treasury bills and I-bonds.
Could we have escaped the economic penalties for all that unprecedented spending and money creation during Covid? Not really, according to a market seer I have respected for years.
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