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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released an updated forecast that predicts total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending will reach $576 billion in 2024, up by 29% from last year’s estimated total of $444 billion.

The total figure includes multifamily lending – and the MBA stated that sector alone will reach $339 billion this year, up by 25% from last year’s estimate of $271 billion. The trade group also predicted borrowing and lending next year will increase to $717 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $404 billion of that total in multifamily lending.

“2023 is likely to go into the record books as the slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research. “As the markets reset – on interest rates, property values, some property fundamentals and other factors – those volumes should pick up marginally. While up from last year’s levels, we still expect borrowing and lending in 2024 to be below what was seen going back to 2017.”

“Commercial mortgage originations have historically followed property prices, and the uncertainty about the future path of interest rates has been a contributing factor to the current slowdown,” Woodwell added. “If interest rates and cap rates were to fall, that should help boost values and promote borrowing. If they remain higher for longer, that will suppress activity. This uncertainty is a contributing factor in today’s slowdown.”

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