Mortgage prepayments have fallen 62% from a year ago. This is what that says about the housing market.

Why is prepayment activity down so drastically? It’s driven in large part by mortgage rates rising and by how much refinancing activity has fallen as those rates have spiked, says Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. While rates on on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hovered around 3% in 2021, they are now above 5%, with some pros saying they will go higher. (You can see the lowest mortgage rates you can qualify for here.) “Higher mortgage rates are likely the culprit for the steep drop-off. As mortgage rates have crossed the 5% threshold, many homeowners lost a key incentive to refinance,” says Kate Wood, home expert at Nerdwallet.