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Mortgage rates, which recently dipped below 3% again — delighting home shoppers and homeowners looking to save on a refinance — have surged back above that line, according to a long-running and closely followed survey.

The increase is meaningful, because rates have been so cheap for so long that many Americans may now be assuming that ultra-low mortgage rates will be there whenever they’re ready to buy a home or pull the trigger on a refi.

It doesn’t work that way. To be sure, today’s rates are still in historically low territory. But forecasts, including a brand-new one, show a steady rise in mortgage rates may be getting underway.