Two-thirds of the 50 counties with the most at-risk housing markets in the fourth quarter of 2024 were in California, Florida, Illinois, and the New York City area, according to new data from ATTOM.
County-level housing markets on the latest list included 14 were in California – mostly inland from the Pacific coast – plus seven scattered across Florida, five in and around Chicago and four in or near New York City. The rest of the most-at-risk markets were spread across different stretches of the Midwest, Northeast and South.
At the other end of the exposure spectrum, roughly half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Wisconsin, Virginia, Tennessee and Pennsylvania. They included four in the Washington, DC, area and three each in the Nashville and Richmond regions.
Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates.
“Local housing markets fluctuate in and out of the lists of areas more or less exposed to declines from quarter to quarter, but some regions consistently rank among the most vulnerable due to significant gaps in key market indicators,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “This report isn’t meant to raise red flags or predict endless gains—it simply highlights counties experiencing more or less pressure that could influence home values, foreclosures, or homeowner equity.”
