New-Home Sales Jump 6.4% in August as Median Price Falls 5.8% From a Year Ago

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Sales of newly built single-family homes accelerated in August, but the government’s latest estimates carry an equally important message on price: builders are moving homes in a market where buyers remain intensely payment-sensitive.

New-home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, up 6.4% from July’s revised 643,000 pace, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales were 2.0% below the August 2025 rate of 698,000.

The median sales price was $393,700, just 0.4% above July but 5.8% below a year earlier. The average price, $478,700, was down 9.1% from July and 8.8% year over year.

Those price estimates deserve attention, but also caution. Census reported margins of error large enough that the 6.4% monthly sales increase and 5.8% annual median-price decline were not statistically distinguishable from zero at the agency’s stated confidence level. The average-price decline from a year earlier was statistically significant under the published margin.

Inventory stayed high even as sales improved

Builders ended August with an estimated 483,000 new homes for sale, unchanged from July and 2.0% below a year earlier. At August’s sales pace, that represented 8.5 months of supply, down from 9.0 months in July and the same as August 2025.

The inventory picture matters because builders have spent much of the higher-rate era competing for buyers with price adjustments, mortgage-rate incentives and other concessions. New construction also has an advantage over much of the existing-home market: builders can create inventory, while many existing owners remain reluctant to give up older, lower-rate mortgages.

That does not mean the new-home market is strong across the board. The annual sales comparison remains negative, supply is elevated, and mortgage rates have moved higher again in recent weeks.

The regional estimates were volatile

August’s headline gain was not evenly distributed. Regional new-home estimates are particularly volatile from month to month, and the Census Bureau publishes wide confidence intervals around them. Housing professionals should avoid reading a single regional percentage change as a firm trend without several months of supporting data.

The more durable national signal is the combination of relatively high new-home inventory, softer pricing and a sales pace that improved in August despite a difficult financing environment.

That combination suggests builders are finding buyers, but often in a market where affordability has substantial influence over product, price and incentives.

One month does not establish a turnaround

The Census Bureau explicitly cautions that month-to-month changes in new-home sales can be revised as additional information becomes available. August’s 6.4% increase came with a ±19.5% margin of error, while the 2.0% year-over-year decline carried a ±15.7% margin.

For that reason, the strongest conclusion from today’s release is narrower than the headline: estimated sales improved in August, inventory remained substantial, and new-home prices were below year-ago levels on both the median and average measures.

For builders and mortgage lenders, the next question is whether that sales improvement survives the renewed rise in borrowing costs. If rates remain elevated, affordability pressure will continue to determine how aggressively builders have to use pricing, incentives and smaller or less expensive product to keep traffic converting into contracts.