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Popular migration destinations where home prices soared during the pandemic–including Boise, IDPhoenix and Tampa, FL–are most likely to see the effects of a housing downturn amplified and home prices decline year over year if the economy goes into a recession, a scenario that some economists believe looks likely as inflation persists and stock markets stumble. Homeowners in those areas who are considering selling may want to list their homes soon to avoid potential price declines.

The U.S. housing market slowed considerably in the spring, with 5.5%-plus mortgage rates sending many buyers to the sidelines and cooling competition. With the market already slowing from its pandemic peak, we analyzed which metros are most susceptible to home-price declines if the country officially enters a recession–and which are most resilient to an economic downturn.