California, Florida, Illinois and New Jersey were home to the greatest number of at-risk markets in the country, according to the third quarter Special Housing Risk Report from ATTOM.
The new report found two-thirds of the 50 counties considered most exposed to potential fallbacks were in the four states. While California, Illinois and New Jersey have been the most risk-challenged states in previous reports, Florida was a new addition to that group.
County-level housing markets on the latest list included six in and around Chicago, five in or near New York City and four in southern New Jersey, with another 13 were in California – mostly inland from the Pacific coast. The rest were scattered largely around the Northeast, South and Midwest.
At the other end of the risk spectrum, more than half the markets considered least likely to decline fell in Virginia, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Montana and New Hampshire. They included four in the Washington, DC, area.
Counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates. More than one of every 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action during the third quarter in 35 of the 50 most vulnerable counties. Nationwide, one in 1,618 homes were in that position.
“The recent market risk patterns changed a bit in the third quarter, with some new areas making the list of places more or less exposed to downfalls,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “But the big picture remained pretty much the same around the country as differences in important metrics helped produce varying pockets of vulnerability. As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”
