Commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to rise to $583 billion this year, according to an updated forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). This represents a 16% increase from 2024’s estimated total of $503 billion.
Multifamily lending alone (which is included in the total figures) is expected to rise to $361 billion this year, which is also a 16% increase from last year’s estimate of $312 billion. MBA also predicts originations will increase to $709 billion in total commercial real estate lending in 2026, with $419 billion of that total in multifamily lending.
“There are still plenty of challenges in commercial real estate, but there are also signs of stabilization. Given the strong pickup in origination activity at the end of 2024, it appears that at least some borrowers and lenders are ready to move,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s senior vice president and chief economist. “MBA is forecasting that interest rates are going to stay within a trading range for the next few years. With abundant capital ready to be deployed, and if rates decline as they did at the end of 2024, we fully expect that borrowers and lenders will jump on any opportunities.”
