Weekly Real Estate News
In brief: A growing share of U.S. housing markets now gives buyers more room to negotiate, but that leverage is not translating into affordability. A new national market analysis finds that rising mortgage rates wiped more than $22,000 from the purchasing power of a buyer with a fixed monthly payment budget.
The Realtor.com third-quarter Market Clock report, released October 19, places the national housing market at 4 o’clock on its 12-hour scale, described as late balanced and moving toward buyers. It had stood at 3 o’clock the previous quarter. The report uses inventory, recorded transactions and projected sales activity to classify 99 large metropolitan markets through September.
More choice does not mean a cheaper mortgage
Realtor.com said mortgage rates climbed from 6.66% in late August to 7.40% on October 8, a 74-basis-point increase. For a household able to spend $2,000 monthly on principal and interest, the change reduced purchasing power by 7.2%, or more than $22,000 in home price. That calculation holds the payment budget constant and isolates the effect of the borrowing rate; it does not include taxes, insurance or changes in the buyer’s down payment.
Buyers may secure price reductions, repairs or closing-cost assistance more readily when sellers compete for fewer offers. Yet a modest negotiated discount may not fully offset a materially higher monthly interest cost. The distinction is especially important for first-time buyers without proceeds from an existing home sale.
Southern markets favor buyers; the Midwest remains tighter
Of the 99 metros studied, 17 were outright buyer’s markets, 27 were seller’s markets, 49 were balanced but loosening toward buyers, and six were balanced but tightening toward sellers. Over the previous year, seller’s markets declined from 39 to 27 while buyer’s markets increased from 13 to 17. The South accounted for 14 of the 17 buyer’s markets; the Midwest held 16 of the 27 seller’s markets.
Greenville, South Carolina, and Nashville, Tennessee, reached the report’s peak-buyer position. Austin, Seattle, Salt Lake City and Portland, Oregon, each shifted two hours toward buyers during the quarter. Hartford, Connecticut, remained at the peak-seller position. These classifications are the research company’s composite measure of market leverage, not a claim that all home prices are falling in a given city.
Where the next shifts could occur
Realtor.com identified Atlanta, Augusta, Charleston, Chattanooga, Denver, Jacksonville, Memphis and San Antonio among balanced markets near a potential shift into buyer territory. The report also highlighted Detroit, Richmond, Columbus and Indianapolis as seller-leaning markets that have moved closer to balance.
The methodology combines listing supply with transactions and contract activity rather than relying on inventory alone. Historical readings were restated under the updated approach. Jackson, Mississippi, was excluded because of a gap in county-level transaction records, leaving 99 metros in the comparison.
Implications for agents, lenders and builders
Real estate professionals should avoid telling clients that a buyer’s market automatically makes a home affordable. A purchaser’s leverage on inspection contingencies and seller credits can improve even while the same household qualifies for a smaller loan. For lenders, the report points to the value of payment-focused qualification and careful discussion of rate-lock timing; for builders, it suggests incentives may be needed to convert shoppers who remain sensitive to financing costs.
With mortgage rates above 7% and the slower winter selling season approaching, the industry’s next test is whether greater negotiating power can produce actual signed contracts and closings. The new report describes September market conditions and October rate changes; it does not forecast a guaranteed nationwide price decline.
