Weekly Real Estate News
Simple Content Summary: A new Redfin analysis estimates that U.S. condo sellers outnumbered buyers by 123% in September 2026, the widest imbalance in the company’s records dating to 2013. Buyers are scarce even as listings rise, leaving sellers under pressure and giving qualified buyers more negotiating leverage.
The U.S. condominium market has swung sharply toward buyers, with an estimated 197,248 sellers competing for just 88,460 buyers in September, according to research released November 9 by Redfin. The resulting 123% seller surplus was the widest in Redfin’s data going back to 2013, compared with 95.5% a year earlier.
The numbers describe September market conditions, not transactions that occurred on the November publication date. They are Redfin estimates rather than a direct count of every prospective buyer. The company derives buyer estimates from its proprietary home-tour-to-closing data and MLS listing and pending-sale information; its seller estimates are based on active MLS listings.
Buyer demand is shrinking faster than supply
Redfin estimates the number of condo buyers fell 2.5% from August to 88,460 in September, its lowest level in at least 13 years. Seller counts increased 0.9% month over month to 197,248. Compared with September 2021, the estimated buyer count was down 54% while the seller count had climbed 36%.
The condo imbalance is substantially wider than the single-family housing market’s estimated 53.7% seller surplus in September. The comparison suggests that the condo market faces distinct affordability and ownership-cost pressures beyond the broader slowdown in homebuying.
Lower prices do not necessarily mean lower ownership costs
The national median condo sale price declined 0.8% from a year earlier to roughly $339,000. About 37% of condos sold in September had experienced a price reduction, compared with 16% five years earlier. The typical condo sold after 63 days on the market, up from 35 days in September 2021.
Insurance premiums, homeowners association fees and special assessments can erode the benefit of a lower purchase price. For lenders and buyers, the key affordability calculation extends beyond principal and interest to include recurring building expenses and the financial condition of the association. Those expenses may also complicate financing or reduce the pool of eligible buyers for some projects.
Texas and Florida show especially large gaps
Among the 50 largest metropolitan areas in Redfin’s analysis, San Antonio recorded an estimated 459% more condo sellers than buyers, followed by Houston at 322%. Miami’s estimated seller surplus was 274%, while Austin’s was 258%. These metro-level estimates should not be treated as uniform conditions across every building or neighborhood.
Nassau County, New York, was the only market in the analysis Redfin classified as a condo seller’s market. Chicago, Milwaukee, New Brunswick, Newark and San Francisco were categorized as balanced.
What this means for the industry
For agents and sellers, the national figures reinforce the importance of pricing against competing units and disclosing association costs early. For buyers, greater bargaining power does not eliminate the need to review reserve funding, pending assessments, insurance coverage and project financing eligibility. Mortgage professionals should consider the full payment and project-specific underwriting requirements before assuming that a discounted condo is easier to finance.
Redfin’s findings provide a snapshot of September conditions, published on November 9. They do not establish that every local condo market is declining, nor do they predict how quickly the seller-buyer gap will narrow.
Featured image: Illustrative residential buildings photograph by Luke van Zyl / Unsplash; not a property identified in Redfin’s analysis.
