Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers by Record 63% as Demand Hits 13-Year Low

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The U.S. housing market had nearly 63% more sellers than buyers in September, the widest imbalance in Redfin records going back to 2013, as higher mortgage rates pushed potential purchasers out of the market faster than homeowners stopped listing.

Redfin’s October 14 analysis estimated 1,510,784 home sellers and 928,892 buyers nationwide. The seller count rose 1.2% from August and reached its highest level since March 2020. The estimated number of buyers fell 2.4% for a fifth consecutive monthly decline and reached the lowest point in the brokerage’s dataset.

The resulting 62.6% surplus of sellers over buyers was up from 56.9% in August, marking a fourth consecutive monthly record. WRE News previously reported the earlier 58% imbalance; September’s new estimates and broader geographic shift represent a material update rather than a repeat of that report.

The numbers are estimates of market participants, not a census of every individual looking at homes or a count of completed sales. Redfin uses its own methodology to classify buyers and sellers, and the ratio should not be confused with the number of active listings divided by closed transactions.

Buyer leverage grows across most major markets

Redfin classified 41 of the 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas as buyer’s markets in September, the highest number in its records. Its definition requires more than 10% more sellers than buyers. A seller’s market has more than 10% fewer sellers than buyers, and markets within that range are considered balanced.

Miami led the nation with 158.9% more sellers than buyers, up from 134.5% in August. Tampa’s seller surplus climbed to 103.7% from 82.2%. Nashville and Houston also ranked among the markets where supply most heavily exceeded estimated demand. All 13 metropolitan areas with more than twice as many sellers as buyers were in the Sun Belt, including four in Texas and four in Florida.

New construction has contributed to the imbalance in parts of those states, Redfin said. Builders continue adding inventory while high financing costs suppress demand. In Florida, insurance premiums and homeowners association fees add to the monthly carrying cost and can make an otherwise negotiable listing difficult for a household to afford.

By contrast, just five large metros qualified as seller’s markets: Nassau County, New York; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; Newark, New Jersey; Milwaukee; and San Francisco. Nassau County had 28.6% fewer sellers than buyers, while San Francisco’s shortfall was 10.6%. Four other metros were classified as balanced.

The gap between the strongest and weakest markets was evident in price data. Redfin said home-sale prices across the five seller’s markets rose an average of 6.4% year over year in August, compared with 1% across the buyer’s markets. Those are different geographic groupings, so the comparison should not be treated as a national price-growth estimate.

More negotiating room does not restore affordability

Buyers who remain active may have more room to negotiate repairs, closing costs, seller concessions or the purchase price. A larger selection can also make it easier to walk away from a home that does not meet a household’s needs. Yet the rising seller surplus partly reflects how many would-be purchasers have left the market.

Redfin senior economist Asad Khan characterized the imbalance as a market shaped by caution and unaffordable housing costs. The brokerage’s explanation is consistent with Wednesday’s MBA mortgage application figures, which showed another weekly drop in purchase activity amid rates near three-year highs.

For sellers, the data complicate pricing strategy. A listing may face competition from both resale homes and builder incentives, particularly in high-construction markets. A lower asking price can attract attention, but buyers still must qualify for a mortgage and carry the full costs of insurance, taxes and maintenance.

The change also matters for agents and lenders evaluating their pipelines. A larger pool of listings does not necessarily translate into more closings when the number of financially capable buyers is falling. Contracts can take longer to secure, sellers may withdraw properties and borrowers may need more time to compare financing options.

Redfin said some owners are listing because they have waited years for demand to rebound; others must move because of work, family changes or retirement. Many households with substantial equity and no urgent need to sell can still stay put or remove their properties from the market. That limits the likelihood that every market with a seller surplus will experience the same price adjustment.

The Federal Reserve’s October 14 Beige Book similarly found that tight inventory continued to support prices in parts of the Northeast while sellers in Florida offered more discounts and incentives. Together, the reports underscore the importance of local conditions.

September’s record seller surplus is therefore a sign of a stalled transaction market as much as an improvement in buyer choice. It gives qualified buyers leverage in many metros, while showing how far demand has retreated under the weight of borrowing and ownership costs.