Weekly Real Estate News
Expectations for another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase have hardened sharply, with all 100 economists in a new Reuters survey predicting a December hike even as most expect policymakers to stand pat next week.
The poll, conducted October 16–20 and released Tuesday, found 94 of 100 respondents expecting the Fed to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% during the October 27–28 meeting. Every respondent anticipated a rate increase at the December 8–9 meeting, compared with fewer than half in Reuters’ previous survey.
The change underscores how persistent inflation has altered the outlook for borrowing costs. The Fed raised its benchmark rate in September, and the new survey suggests economists expect additional tightening rather than a quick return to lower policy rates.
For the housing market, the distinction matters. The Fed does not set 30-year mortgage rates directly. Mortgage pricing reflects Treasury yields, mortgage-backed securities spreads, investor demand and lender costs. Nevertheless, expectations for tighter monetary policy can influence those markets and complicate affordability for prospective homebuyers.
The Reuters findings also highlight the difference between the next decision and the longer-term outlook. An October pause would not necessarily mean policymakers believe inflation is under control. Conversely, unanimous economist forecasts do not guarantee that the Fed will act in December. Incoming economic data and financial conditions could change the decision.
For lenders and builders already navigating weak affordability and uneven buyer demand, a prolonged higher-rate environment may continue to pressure purchase activity, refinancing opportunities and project economics.
WRE News previously reported on the Fed’s September meeting minutes pointing to another 2026 increase. Tuesday’s Reuters survey adds a new measure of consensus: every economist responding now expects the December move.
Source: Reuters survey published October 20, 2026. The poll reports economists’ expectations, not a Federal Reserve announcement.
