Summary
U.S. home sellers outnumbered buyers by a record 57.9% in August, according to Redfin, up sharply from 52.1% in July. The latest shift was driven by a surge in sellers while buyer demand remained essentially flat. Nashville, Miami and Houston now have more than twice as many sellers as buyers. The imbalance gives qualified buyers more negotiating leverage, but mortgage rates near 7% and a national median existing-home price above $429,000 continue to keep many would-be purchasers out of the market.
The gap between home sellers and buyers has never been wider in Redfin’s data. Across much of the Sun Belt, buyers have leverage that would have been difficult to imagine a few years ago. Affording the house is another matter.
America has entered the strongest buyer’s market in more than a decade of Redfin data, but the reason buyers have gained so much leverage says as much about housing affordability as it does about opportunity.
There were an estimated 57.9% more home sellers than buyers in August, the largest imbalance in Redfin’s records dating to 2013. That was a sharp increase from 52.1% in July.
The monthly change is especially notable because of what happened on the supply side.
Redfin estimated that the number of sellers rose to nearly 1.535 million in August, the highest level since early 2020. Buyer demand, at roughly 972,300, was essentially unchanged from July.
That is different from the dynamic WRE News reported in August, when sellers outnumbered buyers by 51.3% and the estimated number of buyers had fallen to a record low.
Now sellers are entering the market faster than buyers are returning to it.
The result is a housing market where qualified buyers have considerably more room to negotiate, particularly in parts of the Sun Belt, even as mortgage rates and home prices keep many would-be purchasers on the sidelines.
“It’s only a buyer’s market for people who can afford to buy.” — Redfin
That may be the most useful way to understand the current market.
Nashville takes the top spot
The national numbers are striking. The differences between local markets are even larger.
Nashville had an estimated 139.3% more sellers than buyers in August, making it the strongest buyer’s market among the major metros analyzed by Redfin.
Miami was close behind at 138.3%, followed by Houston at 130.9%.
Sellers outnumbered buyers by at least two to one in eight major metropolitan areas: Nashville, Miami, Houston, Orlando, Las Vegas, San Antonio, Austin and Dallas.
Every one of Redfin’s 10 strongest buyer’s markets was in the Sun Belt. Atlanta and Phoenix rounded out the list.
The concentration is significant because many of these markets were on the other side of the housing frenzy only a few years ago. Rapid population growth, migration and intense competition for limited inventory helped push prices higher across markets in Texas, Florida, Arizona and Tennessee.
The supply equation has changed.
Redfin pointed to active homebuilding pipelines in Nashville, Texas and Florida as one reason inventory has continued to accumulate even as demand has cooled. In Nashville alone, the number of sellers increased 4.1% from July while the estimated buyer count slipped 0.4%.
For real estate agents and sellers, that changes the conversation around pricing.
A listing is no longer competing primarily for the attention of buyers worried that another bidder will take the house. In many of these markets, it is competing against a growing number of other listings for a limited pool of purchasers.
Homes that are priced for yesterday’s market can sit.
More leverage doesn’t mean homes suddenly became affordable
Calling this a buyer’s market can create the wrong impression if the term is taken to mean housing has become inexpensive.
It hasn’t.
Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.76% for the week ending Sept. 10, up from 6.71% a week earlier and 6.35% one year ago.
Home prices are still rising nationally as well.
The National Association of Realtors reported this week that the median existing-home price reached $429,100 in August, 1.6% higher than a year earlier.
Inventory increased to 1.62 million homes, its highest level since 2019, while existing-home sales slipped 2% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million.
WRE News reported on that widening inventory picture Thursday, including the 4.9-month supply of unsold homes now sitting on the market.
Taken together, the numbers describe an unusual market.
Buyers who can qualify and are willing to transact have more homes to consider and more leverage once negotiations begin. But elevated prices and financing costs continue to keep a significant number of households from becoming buyers at all.
That distinction matters for mortgage professionals.
More listings do not automatically create more originations. A lender still needs a borrower who can qualify for the loan and absorb the monthly payment.
For the borrowers who can, however, the transaction itself may look very different than it did during the pandemic-era market.
Sellers may have to give something back
Redfin defines a buyer’s market as one with more than 10% more sellers than buyers. By that measure, 36 of the 49 major metros it analyzed were buyer’s markets in August.
That creates room for negotiations that were far less common when inventory was scarce.
Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said buyers in most markets can negotiate on price and seek concessions, including repairs and help with closing costs, although attractive homes that are priced appropriately can still draw competition.
For housing professionals, that is where the national statistics become practical.
Agents representing sellers may need to reset expectations before a property reaches the market rather than after weeks without an acceptable offer. Buyer agents have more room to negotiate terms. Loan officers working with purchase borrowers may find that seller concessions can help make certain transactions work.
None of that means every seller has lost leverage.
There are still places where sellers have the advantage
Five of the major markets Redfin analyzed remained seller’s markets in August.
Nassau County, New York, had the largest seller advantage, with 27.6% fewer sellers than buyers. Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, followed with 20.3% fewer sellers, while Milwaukee had 17.7% fewer sellers.
San Francisco also qualified as a seller’s market, just the second time in four years Redfin has classified it that way.
The contrast is another reminder that there is no single U.S. housing market.
An agent trying to price a home in Nashville is operating in a dramatically different environment from an agent working in parts of suburban New York. The same national mortgage rate can land in markets with very different inventory, demand and pricing dynamics.
That makes local data increasingly important as the national market becomes less uniform.
The buyer finally has leverage. The payment still has the final say.
The shift since July is worth watching because this is no longer simply a story about buyers leaving the market.
Sellers are returning.
If that continues while buyer demand remains weak, competition among sellers could intensify further, particularly in markets where new construction is adding inventory at the same time.
That could translate into more price reductions, concessions and longer marketing times in the most buyer-friendly metros. It could also create opportunities for purchasers who have been waiting for the negotiating environment to improve.
But there is a limit to what negotiating leverage can accomplish.
A seller can lower a price. A seller can pay closing costs. A seller can agree to repairs.
None of those changes, by themselves, erase the affordability problem created by the combination of home prices and borrowing costs.
America now has the strongest buyer’s market in Redfin’s records.
For the people who can still afford to be buyers, that could be very good news.
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