Weekly Real Estate News
Summary
The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28 as September new-home sales, the Census housing vacancy report, third-quarter GDP, September PCE inflation and D.R. Horton results arrive. UWM's rights-offering price measurement begins October 27.
Housing lenders and builders face an unusually concentrated stretch of economic news this week. The Federal Reserve will decide its next interest-rate move Wednesday, with September new-home sales due Tuesday and the first estimate of third-quarter economic growth arriving Thursday. D.R. Horton, the nation’s largest homebuilder by volume, will report fiscal year-end results the same morning.
The dates come from the agencies’ and companies’ published schedules. None of the pending releases establishes a result in advance. The sequence matters because mortgage rates have remained elevated even as the housing market has struggled to turn buyer interest into completed transactions.
Date
Scheduled release
Source
Oct. 27
September new-home sales
Census Bureau
Oct. 28
Fed decision; Q3 housing vacancies
Federal Reserve; Census Bureau
Oct. 29
Q3 GDP; September personal income, outlays and PCE; D.R. Horton earnings
BEA; D.R. Horton
Tuesday: September new-home sales
The Census Bureau’s release calendar schedules September new residential sales for Tuesday, October 27, at 10 a.m. Eastern. August’s annualized sales pace was 684,000, up 6.4% from a revised July estimate of 643,000. The September report will show whether that improvement survived another period of high borrowing costs.
New-home sales measure contracts signed or deposits accepted, including for houses that have not been completed. They are not a count of closings, and early estimates can change substantially. Builders can also use mortgage-rate buydowns and other incentives to secure contracts, which means sales volume alone cannot reveal the profitability of those orders.
The distinction has become increasingly important as builders report pressure on margins. WRE News reported Friday that NVR’s profit and mortgage volume declined, offering a company-level view of the same financing pressures that will be tested in Tuesday’s national figures.
Wednesday: the Fed and the housing vacancy report
The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27–28, with a policy announcement expected Wednesday. This meeting is not one of the four regularly scheduled sessions accompanied by a new Summary of Economic Projections. The policy statement and the chair’s explanation will therefore carry much of the immediate guidance.
Mortgage rates do not move mechanically with the Fed’s overnight rate. Treasury yields, expectations about inflation and growth, and the spread investors demand to hold mortgage-backed securities all affect borrowers’ offers. A Fed decision could influence those markets without producing an equal change in the 30-year mortgage rate.
That separation is worth keeping in view after Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the 30-year rate easing to 7.32% on October 22, its first weekly decline since late August. One weekly move does not establish a sustained easing trend.
Also Wednesday, the Census Bureau schedules its third-quarter housing vacancies and homeownership report for 10 a.m. Eastern. That release offers a separate measure of rental and owner-occupied housing conditions. Its vacancy measures should not be confused with the number of homes actively listed for sale on commercial listing platforms.
Thursday: GDP, household spending and the largest builder
The Bureau of Economic Analysis has scheduled its advance estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product and September personal income and outlays for Thursday, October 29, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The latter report includes the personal consumption expenditures price measures closely followed by the Fed.
The GDP release will offer an early reading of overall economic activity, subject to revision. The household spending and inflation figures could matter more immediately for interest-rate expectations. Housing professionals should resist drawing a direct mortgage-rate forecast from either release without examining bond-market responses.
D.R. Horton plans to release its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results before the market opens Thursday and hold a call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The company operates across homebuilding, rental housing and mortgage-related services. Orders, cancellation rates, incentives, gross margins and the performance of its financing business will be useful indicators of what it took to sell homes during the late summer.
The builder’s reporting period ended September 30. Its figures will be historical results, while any outlook for the new fiscal year will remain management’s forecast. They should be weighed alongside other builders’ results rather than treated as a proxy for every local market.
Mortgage capital also has a deadline approaching
The week begins a pricing measurement period for UWM Holdings’ previously announced $400 million rights offering. Its formula uses trading prices over October 27 through November 9, subject to the offering’s terms. The offering itself is scheduled to expire November 12. WRE has already reported the company’s planned servicing-rights sales and capital strategy.
Featured image: Ernie Journeys / Unsplash. Illustrative townhouses under construction; not a project discussed in this article.
The practical test this week is whether weaker transaction activity, persistent inflation and lender financing costs continue to point in the same direction. Tuesday’s contract figures, Wednesday’s policy decision and Thursday’s builder results measure different parts of that question. None should be mistaken for a definitive verdict on the housing market by itself.
