Share this article!

Source: NPR — 

The good times are back on Wall Street.

Stocks have surged since the start of the year. The Nasdaq is up nearly 15% this year after posting its best January since 2001. And it’s not just stocks: bonds have risen and even bitcoin has made a roaring comeback, though all markets fell a tad on Friday.

This is all after a miserable 2022, when markets were hit hard by fears about surging inflation and about how the Federal Reserve was fighting it, with the biggest increases in the country’s interest rates since the early 1980s.

Today, hope has replaced that fear. Inflation has eased substantially and investors now believe the Fed will soon stop raising interest rates – and even cut them later this year to prop up a sagging economy.

And many on Wall Street no longer dread the worst about the economy, turning from their predictions of a big recession to hope that any downturn will be mild, or even that a recession may not happen at all.

But should there be this much optimism? Here’s why Wall Street is getting so excited about the economy – and why others believe it may end in tears.

The case for hope

The recent Wall Street gains could perhaps be explained in a single word: inflation

There are plenty of signs that inflation is starting to ease substantially after reaching its highest levels in around 40 years last year.

Consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 6.5% in December, down from a peak of 9.1% in June. The Fed’s preferred inflation yardstick is also down substantially from its recent peak.

And economists are hopeful inflation will continue to ease. Supply chains, for example, have improved. And wage gains have softened in recent months, allaying economists’ worries that rising wages could push up prices.

Booking.com

Prices are still high, of course, in fact, too high for the Fed’s comfort.

But even Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expressing some hope about inflation while warning, repeatedly, that the fight against inflation is far from done.

Recession? What recession?

Then, there are the shifting views on the economy. In 2022, markets were bracing for the worst as they looked to history.

 

Reset password

Enter your email address and we will send you a link to change your password.

Get started with your account

to save your favorite homes and more

Sign up with email

Get started with your account

to save your favorite homes and more

By clicking the «SIGN UP» button you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy

Create an agent account

Manage your listings, profile and more

By clicking the «SIGN UP» button you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy

Create an agent account

Manage your listings, profile and more

Sign up with email