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Last year was one for the record books for the Manhattan real estate market, and the surge in deal volume during 2021 was primarily due to pent-up demand. The fear of missing out increased the number of expected buyers when the market reopened in the summer of 2020, and fears subsequently subsided.

A deeper look suggests that if the suppressed appetite for Manhattan real estate was to blame, it has since been sated. But before we can come to that conclusion, it’s important to consider what the usual level of demand would be, and what should have been expected in 2020.