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Existing home sales are expected to continue growing through 2022, approaching levels not seen since 2005, while annual home value growth is likely to peak and plateau in the early months of 2022 before slowing somewhat through the end of next year.

Home values are expected to grow 4.1% in Q1 2022, and to end 2022 up 16.4% from the end of 2021, with the pace of annual growth expected to peak at 20% in February before gradually slowing throughout the remainder of the year. The near-term, three-month forecast is up slightly from 3.7% growth expected previously from November to February. Longer-term expectations for home value growth have also risen: We previously expected 14.3% growth between November 2021 and November 2022. The robust long-term outlook is driven by our expectations for tight market conditions to persist, with demand for housing exceeding the supply of available homes.